USDINR opened at 78.25 y’day and the pair traded in the 78.23-78.38 range. Spot USDINR closed at 78.31, loss of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 78.38. RBI reference rate was fixed at 78.26 on 23/06June USD/INR closed at 78.35, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 78.35. June Euro/INR closed at 82.31, GBP/INR at 95.66 and Yen/INR at 57.95. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.90% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.


In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 66775 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 9078 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 194 points (0.64%) y’day. DOW declined 47 points (-0.15%). Nikkei climbed 0.08% and Hang Seng climbed 1.32%.

Euro closed at 1.0522, Pound at 1.2257, Yen at 135.04.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1823 and WT1Crude at USD 105/Brent at USD 111.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.10% and 3 m libor closed at 2.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.40%.

Economic news: Indian Capital account recorded a net outflow of USD 1.7 bn in Q4 FY22 as compared to a surplus of USD 22.5 bn in Q3 FY22. The deficit in capital account was led by net portfolio outflows of USD 15.2 bn. Net FDI inflows rose to a 5-quarter high of USD 13.8 bn in Q4. BoP recorded a deficit after a hiatus of 12 quarters due to deficit in both current account and capital account. BoP deficit stood at USD 16 bn in Q4 from a surplus of USD 0.5 bn in Q3 FY22 and USD 3.4 bn in Q4 FY21. For full FY22, CAD stood at 1.2% of GDP vs. a surplus of 0.9% recorded in FY21 due to wider trade deficit. Trade deficit widened to USD 190 bn in FY22 from USD 102 bn in FY21 led by higher imports.

US PMI(mfrg) declined to 52.4 and PMI(services) also declined steeply to 51.6. EU PMI also declined steeplyChief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Eurozone economic growth is showing signs of faltering … Excluding pandemic lockdown months, June’s slowdown was the most abrupt recorded by the survey since the height of the global financial crisis in November 2008…. The slowdown means the latest data signal a rate of GDP growth of just 0.2% at the end of the second quarter, down sharply from 0.6% at the end of the first quarter, with worse likely to come in the second half of the year.”

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 229k.

-EU PMI (mfrg) declined to 52 and PMI(services) declined to 52.8.

-UK PMI (mfrg) dipped to 53.5 and PMI(services) climbed to 53.4.

Friday’s calendar :  – US new home sales

-UK retail sales.

USD/INR   78.3878.23
EUR/USD      1.05221.05811.0483
GBP/USD      1.22571.22931.2170
USD/JPY      135.04136.20134.27

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
USD/INR78.3178.3878.45 78.2478.17 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.85. 50 day moving average is at 77.27.200 day moving average is at 75.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 77.80 and important resistance is at 78.50/78.68. Spot closed at its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 78.31, S1:78.24, S2:78.13, R1:78.41, R2:78.49.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 78.25+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 77.80.


EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0790. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2660 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 131.35. Major resistance is at 135.50/136.35.

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