USDINR opened at 77.97 y’day and the pair traded in the 77.97-78.09 range. Spot USDINR closed at 78.08, gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.98. RBI reference rate was fixed at 78.08 on 21/06. June USD/INR closed at 78.02, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 78.13. June Euro/INR closed at 82.53, GBP/INR at 95.83 and Yen/INR at 57.56. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.35% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (21/06) |
| USDINR | 78.08 |
| EURINR | 82.12 |
| GBPINR | 95.67 |
| JPYINR | 57.80 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 288 points (1.88%) y’day. DOW gained 641 points (2.15%).Nikkei climbed 1.84% and Hang Seng climbed 1.87%.
Euro closed at 1.0510, Pound at 1.2250, Yen at 136.28.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1830 and WT1Crude at USD 108/Brent at USD 113.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.27% and 3 m libor closed at 2.09%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.48%.
Economic news: Fed Chairman’s testimony to US Congress is the key focus event for the week. ECB Governing Council member said, “with inflation rising sharply, there has been good reason to expedite the normalization of monetary policy,”
Data highlights: – US Existing home sales was reported at 5.41 mn.
Wednesday’s calendar : UK CPI, PPI(output) and RPI
| USD/INR | 78.09 | 77.97 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0510 | 1.0583 | 1.0513 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2250 | 1.2323 | 1.2245 | |
| USD/JPY | 136.28 | 136.71 | 134.95 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0542 | 1.0571 | 1.0612 | 1.0641 | 1.0501 | 1.0472 | 1.0431 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2277 | 1.2309 | 1.2356 | 1.2388 | 1.2231 | 1.2198 | 1.2152 |
| USD/JPY | 135.99 | 137.03 | 137.76 | 138.80 | 135.27 | 134.22 | 133.50 |
| USD/INR | 78.04 | 78.12 | 78.17 | 77.99 | 77.91 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0340 | 1.0790 | DN | UP>1.0790 |
| GBP/USD | 1.20 | 1.2660/1.28 | DN | SIDE>1.2660 |
| USD/JPY | 131.35 | 135.50/136.25 | UP | SIDE<131.35 |
| USD/INR | 77.80 | 78.25 | UP | SIDE<77.48 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9550 | 1.0060 | UP | DN<0.9550 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.78. 50 day moving average is at 77.17.200 day moving average is at 75.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 77.80 and important resistance is at 78.25. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 78.09, S1:78, S2:77.86, R1:78.24, R2:78.32.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 78.25+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 77.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0790. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2660 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 131.35. Major resistance is at 135.50/136.35.
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