FX MORNING UPDATE  

USDINR opened at 77.95 y’day and the pair traded in the 77.87-78.03 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.98, loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 78.07. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.99 on 20/06June USD/INR closed at 78.02, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 78.13. June Euro/INR closed at 82.21, GBP/INR at 95.68 and Yen/INR at 57.88. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.35% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.

PAIRSRBI REF RATE (20/06)
USDINR77.99
EURINR82.13
GBPINR95.44
JPYINR57.82

In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 66775 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 9078 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 56 points (0.35%) y’day. US market was closed (0%).Nikkei declined 0.74% and Hang Seng climbed 0.42%.

Euro closed at 1.0534, Pound at 1.2273, Yen at 135.01.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1842 and WT1Crude at USD 110/Brent at USD 115.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.28% and 3 m libor closed at 2.09%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.42%.

Economic news: US market was closed Y’day. Fed Chairman’s testimony to US Congress is the key focus event for the week.

Data highlights: – No major data.

Tuesday’s calendar :  US Existing home sales

USD/INR   78.0377.87
EUR/USD      1.05341.05461.0485
GBP/USD      1.22731.22791.2199
USD/JPY      135.01135.43134.54

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
EURO/USD1.05161.05471.05771.06081.04861.04551.0425
GBP/USD1.22421.22851.23221.23651.22051.21621.2125
USD/JPY135.03135.52135.92136.41134.63134.14133.74
USD/INR77.9678.0578.12 77.8977.80 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks
EURO/USD1.03401.0790DNUP>1.0790
GBP/USD1.201.2660/1.28DNSIDE>1.2660
USD/JPY131.35135.50/136.25UPSIDE<131.35
USD/INR77.8078.25UPSIDE<77.48
USD/CHF0.95501.0060UPDN<0.9550

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.76. 50 day moving average is at 77.12.200 day moving average is at 75.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 77.80 and important resistance is at 78.25. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 78.01, S1:77.94, S2:77.85, R1:78.11, R2:78.17.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 78.25+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 77.80.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0790. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2660 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 131.35. Major resistance is at 135.50/136.35.

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