USDINR opened at 78.03 on Friday and the pair traded in the 78.03-78.09 range. Spot USDINR closed at 78.07, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 78.07. RBI reference rate was fixed at 78.08 on 17/06. June USD/INR closed at 78.13, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 78.14. June Euro/INR closed at 82.22, GBP/INR at 96.11 and Yen/INR at 58.11. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.35% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (17/06) |
| USDINR | 78.08 |
| EURINR | 82.10 |
| GBPINR | 95.89 |
| JPYINR | 58.23 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 67 points (0.44%) on Friday. DOW declined 38 points. (0.13%).Nikkei declined 1.77% and Hang Seng climbed 1.10%.
Euro closed at 1.05, Pound at 1.2225, Yen at 134.96.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1841 and WT1Crude at USD 110/Brent at USD 113.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.23% and 3 m libor closed at 2.02%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.54%.
Economic news: BoJ left short-term policy interest rate unchanged at -0.10%, and 10-year JGB target at around 0% under the yield curve control. It will continue to defend the 0.25%
Crude Oil declined steeply, in tandem with metals.
Data highlights: – US industrial production climbed 0.2% m/m.
-EU CPI was finalized at 8.1% y/y.
Monday’s calendar : No major data.
| USD/INR | 78.09 | 78.03 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.05 | 1.0560 | 1.0445 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2225 | 1.2371 | 1.2174 | |
| USD/JPY | 134.96 | 135.41 | 132.18 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0501 | 1.0558 | 1.0616 | 1.0442 | 1.0386 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2256 | 1.2339 | 1.2453 | 1.2141 | 1.2059 | ||
| USD/JPY | 134.18 | 136.18 | 137.41 | 132.95 | 130.95 | ||
| USD/INR | 78.06 | 78.09 | 78.12 | 78.03 | 78 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0340 | 1.0790 | DN | UP>1.0790 |
| GBP/USD | 1.20 | 1.2660/1.28 | DN | SIDE>1.2660 |
| USD/JPY | 131.35 | 135.50/136.25 | UP | SIDE<131.35 |
| USD/INR | 77.80 | 78.25 | UP | SIDE<77.48 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9550 | 1.0060 | UP | DN<0.9550 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.73. 50 day moving average is at 77.07.200 day moving average is at 75.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 77.80 and important resistance is at 78.25. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 78.11, S1:78.07, S2:78.02, R1:78.16, R2:78.20.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 78.25+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 77.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0790. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2660 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 131.35. Major resistance is at 135.50/136.35.
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