USDINR opened at 78.03 y’day and the pair traded in the 77.96-78.07 range. Spot USDINR closed at 78, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 78.04. RBI reference rate was fixed at 78 on 14/06. June USD/INR closed at 78.11, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 78.12. June Euro/INR closed at 81.72, GBP/INR at 94.54 and Yen/INR at 58.22. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.30% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (14/06) |
| USDINR | 78 |
| EURINR | 81.36 |
| GBPINR | 94.98 |
| JPYINR | 57.92 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 42 points (0.27%) y’day. DOW declined 151 points. (0.50%).Nikkei declined 1.32% and Hang Seng closed flat.
Euro is now at 1.0448, Pound at 1.2037, Yen at 135.03.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1815 and WT1Crude at USD 119/Brent at USD 121.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.43% and 3 m libor closed at 1.74%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.58%.
Economic news: WPI inflation climbed to 15.88% in May as against 15.08% in April. USDINR fwd premia declined significantly with 1 year trading at 3.30% p.a.. This is due to rise in US 10 Year yield to 3.36%.
Focus will be on US FOMC meeting and UK MPC decision on rates and forward guidance.
Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.8% m/m.
-EU Zew survey declined to -28.
-UK unemployment rate climbed to 3.8%.
Wednesday’s calendar : US retail sales
-EU industrial production.
| USD/INR | 78.07 | 77.96 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0448 | 1.0483 | 1.0397 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2037 | 1.2208 | 1.1934 | |
| USD/JPY | 135.03 | 135.60 | 133.88 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0439 | 1.0481 | 1.0525 | 1.0567 | 1.0395 | 1.0353 | 1.0309 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2051 | 1.2168 | 1.2325 | 1.2442 | 1.1894 | 1.1777 | 1.1620 |
| USD/JPY | 134.92 | 135.96 | 136.63 | 137.67 | 134.24 | 133.21 | 132.53 |
| USD/INR | 78.01 | 78.06 | 78.12 | 77.95 | 77.90 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0340 | 1.0790 | DN | UP<1.0790 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2165 | 1.2660/1.28 | DN | SIDE>1.2660 |
| USD/JPY | 131.35 | 136.25 | UP | SIDE<131.35 |
| USD/INR | 77.80 | 78.25 | UP | SIDE<77.48 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9550 | 1.0066 | UP | DN<0.9550 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.66. 50 day moving average is at 76.92.200 day moving average is at 75.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 77.80 and important resistance is at 78.25. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 78.20, S1:78.01, S2:77.92, R1:78.30, R2:78.48.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 78.25+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 77.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0790. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2660 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2165. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 126.30/125. Major resistance is at 131.30.
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