USDINR opened at 77.65 Y’day and the pair traded in the 77.64-77.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.73, gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.63. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.72 on 07/06. June USD/INR closed at 77.82, loss of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.95. June Euro/INR closed at 83.61, GBP/INR at 97.71 and Yen/INR at 58.17. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.7% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (08/06)|
In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 52540 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 2819 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 60 points (0.37%) y’day. DOW climbed 16 points. (.05%).Nikkei climbed 1.04% and Hang Seng climbed 2.24%.
Euro closed the week at 1.0718, Pound at 1.2527, Yen at 134.27.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1854 and WT1Crude at USD 122/Brent at USD 124.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.05% and 3 m libor closed at 1.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.49%.
Economic news: RBI increased repo rates by 50 bps to 4.9%. Inflation is expected to average 6.7% in FY23 and growth projection has been retained at 7.2%.
Eurozone GDP grew 0.6% qoq in Q1, revised up from prior estimate of 0.3% qoq. Focus is on ECB meeting outcome.
OECD warned on Wednesday that the world economy will pay a “hefty price” for the war in Ukraine including weaker growth, stronger inflation, and persistent damage to supply chains.
Data highlights: – : -UK PMI(construction) dipped to 56.4.
Thursday’s calendar : ECB meeting and US Weekly jobless claims.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.56. 50 day moving average is at 76.79.200 day moving average is at 75.21. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77.78. Important supports are at 77.48/77.27/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 77.84, S1:77.75, S2:77.69, R1:77.90, R2:77.99.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.65+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0750/1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2165 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2450/1.2325/1.2165. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 126.30/125. Major resistance is at 131.30.
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