FX MORNING UPDATE         

USDINR opened at 77.64 Y’day and the pair traded in the 77.61-77.68 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.63, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 77.61. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.67 on 06/06June USD/INR closed at 77.78, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.77. June Euro/INR closed at 83.55, GBP/INR at 97.70 and Yen/INR at 59.63. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.7% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.

PAIRSRBI REF RATE (06/06)
USDINR77.67
EURINR83.28
GBPINR97.11
JPYINR59.45

In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 52540 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 2819 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 15 points (0.09%) y’day. DOW climbed 16 points. (.05%).Nikkei climbed 0.56% and Hang Seng climbed 2.71%.

Euro closed the week at 1.0677, Pound at 1.2508, Yen at 132.70.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1839 and WT1Crude at USD 119/Brent at USD 120.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.05% and 3 m libor closed at 1.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.50%.

Economic news: RBI is expected to meet hike rates by 25 bps. RBI MPC meeting is underway. Focus is also on ECB meeting and US CPI data, to be released later this week.

Data highlights: – : No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar : German factory orders

-UK PMI(services)

USD/INR   77.6877.61
EUR/USD      1.06771.07521.0684
GBP/USD      1.25081.25771.2477
USD/JPY      132.70132.30130.43

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks
EURO/USD1.03401.0750/1.0950SIDEDN<1.0550
GBP/USD1.2450/1.2325/1.21651.2660/1.28DNSIDE>1.2660
USD/JPY129.80/126.30131.30UPDN<126.30
USD/INR77.48/77.27/77.1577.80/78UPSIDE<77.48
USD/CHF0.9550/0.940.9820SIDEUP>0.9820

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.53. 50 day moving average is at 76.73.200 day moving average is at 75.21. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77.78. Important supports are at 77.48/77.27/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 77.80, S1:77.75, S2:77.72, R1:77.83, R2:77.88.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.65+ levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0750/1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2165 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2450/1.2325/1.2165. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 126.30/125. Major resistance is at 131.30.

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