USDINR opened at 77.45 Y’day and the pair traded in the 77.44-77.66 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.63, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.61. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.59 on 03/06. June USD/INR closed at 77.78, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.77. June Euro/INR closed at 83.67, GBP/INR at 97.75 and Yen/INR at 59.85. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.7% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (03/06) |
| USDINR | 77.59 |
| EURINR | 83.45 |
| GBPINR | 97.57 |
| JPYINR | 59.74 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 43 points (0.26%) on Friday. DOW declined 348 points. (1.05%).Nikkei climbed 1.27% and Hang Seng declined 1%.
Euro closed the week at 1.0718, Pound at 1.2485, Yen at 130.86.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1854 and WT1Crude at USD 120/Brent at USD 121.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.94% and 3 m libor closed at 1.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.45%.
Economic news: US non-farm payroll employment grew 390k in May, above expectation of 325k. Prior month’s growth was also revised up from 428k to 436k. Overall non-farm employment was still down by -822k, or -0.5% from its prepandemic level. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% for the third month in a row, above expectation of 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.4% mom.
Data highlights: – : – US ISM(services) dipped to 55.9.
-EU PMI(composite) was finalized at 54.8 and retail sales declined -1.3% m/m.
Monday’s calendar : No major data release.
| USD/INR | 77.63 | 77.54 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0718 | 1.0765 | 1.0704 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2485 | 1.2591 | 1.2485 | |
| USD/JPY | 130.86 | 130.99 | 129.68 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0729 | 1.0754 | 1.0790 | 1.0693 | 1.0668 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2520 | 1.2555 | 1.2626 | 1.2449 | 1.2414 | ||
| USD/JPY | 130.51 | 131.34 | 131.82 | 130.03 | 129.20 | ||
| USD/INR | 77.57 | 77.71 | 77.80 | 77.48 | 77.34 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0340 | 1.0750/1.0950 | SIDE | DN<1.0550 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2450/1.2325/1.2165 | 1.2660/1.28 | DN | SIDE>1.2660 |
| USD/JPY | 129.80/126.30 | 131.30 | UP | DN<126.30 |
| USD/INR | 77.48/77.27/77.15 | 77.80/78 | UP | SIDE<77.48 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9550/0.94 | 0.9820 | SIDE | UP>0.9820 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.44. 50 day moving average is at 76.70.200 day moving average is at 75.21. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77.78. Important supports are at 77.48/77.27/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 77.75, S1:77.48, S2:77.34, R1:77.86, R2:77.94.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.65+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0750/1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2165 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2450/1.2325/1.2165. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 126.30/125. Major resistance is at 131.30.
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