USDINR opened at 77.59 Y’day and the pair traded in the 77.54-77.64 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.61, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.53. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.58 on 02/06. June USD/INR closed at 77.77, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.74. June Euro/INR closed at 83.27, GBP/INR at 97.68 and Yen/INR at 60.07. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.72% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 597.73 bn as on 22/5.


In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 39538 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 6787 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 105 points (0.64%) y’day. DOW climbed 433 points. (1.33%).Nikkei declined 0.16% and Hang Seng declined 1%.

Euro is now at 1.0754, Pound at 1.2576, Yen at 129.82.

CommoditiesGold is now at USD 1871 and WT1Crude at USD 116.65/Brent at USD 117.55.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.92% and 3 m libor closed at 1.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.41%.

Economic newsIndian exports climbed 15.46% in May to USD 37.29 bn. Imports climbed to USD 60.62 bn. Trade deficit climbed to USD 23.33 bn.

ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in Pairs, “inflation is not only too high, but also too broad. This requires a normalization of monetary policy — I say normalization and not tightening.” He added that the normalization process should be “gradual but resolute”.

US NFP (employment data) is to be released later tonight.

Data highlights: – : -US Weekly jobless claims declined to 200k, factory orders climbed 0.3% m/m and ADP employment report showed that private sector added 128k jobs, below expectation.

-EU PPI climbed 1.2% m/m.

Friday’s calendar : US nonfarm payrolls and ISM(services)

-EU PMI(services-final) and retail sales

USD/INR   77.6377.54
EUR/USD      1.07541.07511.0675
GBP/USD      1.25761.25881.2468
USD/JPY      129.82130.24129.51

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
USD/INR77.6077.6677.69 77.5777.51 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.42. 50 day moving average is at 76.66.200 day moving average is at 75.14. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77.78. Important supports are at 77.48/77.27/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 77.78, S1:77.67, S2:77.60, R1:77.85, R2:77.96.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.65+ levels.


EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0750/1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2165 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2500/1.2325/1.2165. Important resistance is at 1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 131.30. Important support is at 126.40/125.

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