USDINR opened at 77.60 Y’day and the pair traded in the 77.51-77.62 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.53, loss of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.63. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.55 on 01/06. June USD/INR closed at 77.74, loss of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.89. June Euro/INR closed at 83.41, GBP/INR at 97.85 and Yen/INR at 60.10. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.72% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 597.73 bn as on 22/5.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (01/06)|
In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 39538 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 6787 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 61 points (0.37%) y’day. DOW declined 176 points. (0.54%).Nikkei climbed 0.65% and Hang Seng declined 0.56%.
Euro is now at 1.0650, Pound at 1.2480, Yen at 130.07.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1848 and WT1Crude at USD 112.50/Brent at USD 113.85.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.91% and 3 m libor closed at 1.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.41%.
Economic news: USD was supported by upbeat US economic data.
US ISM data climbed, despite mixed signals on prices and employment. ISM said that the linkage between ISM and GDP data implies that US economy is climbing at 2.6% annualized basis.
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 54.6 in May, down from April’s 55.5. That’s the lowest level in 18 months. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Euro area manufacturers continue to struggle against the headwinds of supply shortages, elevated inflationary pressures and weakening demand amid rising uncertainty about the economic outlook.
Data highlights: – : US ISM(mfrg) climbed to 56.1, construction spending declined to 0.2% m/m.
-German retail sales declined -5.4% m/m, PMI(mfrg) climbed to 54.6 and unemployment rate was reported at 6.8%.
-UK PMI(mfrg) was reported at 54.6.
Thursday’s calendar : -US Weekly jobless claims, factory orders and ADP employment report
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.37. 50 day moving average is at 76.64.200 day moving average is at 75.14. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77.78. Important supports are at 77.48/77.27/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 77.78, S1:77.67, S2:77.60, R1:77.85, R2:77.96.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.65+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0750/1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2165 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2500/1.2325/1.2165. Important resistance is at 1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 131.30. Important support is at 126.40/125.
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