USDINR opened at 77.59 on Friday and the pair traded in the 77.56-77.67 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.57, loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.58. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.65 on 27/05. June USD/INR closed at 77.82, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.82. June Euro/INR closed at 83.47, GBP/INR at 98.09 and Yen/INR at 61.41. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.82% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 597.73 bn as on 22/5.

In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 39538 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 6787 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 144 points (0.90%) on Friday. DOW climbed 575 points (1.76%).Nikkei climbed 0.66% and Hang Seng climbed 2.89%.

Euro is now at 1.0735, Pound at 1.2629, Yen at 127.13.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1851 and WT1Crude at USD 115/Brent at USD 115.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.74% and 3 m libor closed at 1.50%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.35%.

Economic news: Rupee is steady in the 77.45-77.65 range.

US headline PCE price index slowed from 6.6% yoy to 6.3% yoy, below expectation of 6.6% yoy. Core PCE price index slowed from 5.2% yoy to 4.9% yoy, matched expectations.

Bundesbank President said that, “in our June meeting we must send a clear signal where we’re going. From my current perspective, we must then make the first rates move in July and have others follow in the second half of the year.”

Data highlights: – : US Personal income climbed 0.4% m/m, spending climbed 0.9% m/m and Core PCE index climbed 0.3% m/m.

Friday’s calendar : No major data release.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.20. 50 day moving average is at 76.58.200 day moving average is at 75.14. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77.78. Important supports are at 77.48/77.27/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 77.84, S1:77.77, S2:77.71, R1:77.89, R2:77.97.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.65+ levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0750/1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2165 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2500/1.2325/1.2165. Important resistance is at 1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 131.30. Important support is at 126.40/125.

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