USDINR opened at 77.56 y’day and the pair traded in the 77.52-77.68 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.58, gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.51. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.63 on 24/05. May USD/INR closed at 77.58, loss of 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.74. May Euro/INR closed at 83.07, GBP/INR at 96.98 and Yen/INR at 60.88. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.82% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 597.73 bn as on 29/4.

In 2022-23, FII’S have sold 40537 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 7327 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 89 points (0.55%) y’day. DOW climbed 48 points (0.15%).Nikkei declined 0.94% and Hang Seng declined 1.89%.

Euro is now at 1.0718, Pound at 1.2522, Yen at 127.02.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1861 and WT1Crude at USD 110.45/Brent at USD 111.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.76% and 3 m libor closed at 1.50%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.36%.

Economic news: UK PMI survey data signal a severe slowing in the rate of economic growth in May, with forward-looking indicators hinting that worse is to come. Meanwhile, the inflation picture has worsened as the rate of increase of companies’ costs hit yet another all-time high. The survey data therefore point to the economy almost grinding to a halt as inflationary pressure rises to unprecedented levels.

Euro rallied on hawkish comments by ECB Chairperson.

Data highlights: – : US New home sales declined steeply to 591k.

-EU PMI(mfrg) dipped to 54.4 and PMI(services) declined to 56.3.

-UK PMI(mfrg) dipped to 54.6 and PMI(services) declined steeply to 51.8.

Wednesday’s calendar : US Durables order and FOMC Minutes.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 77.05. 50 day moving average is at 76.52.200 day moving average is at 75.05. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 76. Important supports are at 77.48/77.27/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 77.61, S1:77.51, S2:77.45, R1:77.68, R2:77.77.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.70+ levels.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0640. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2165 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2165/1.2030. Important resistance is at 1.2640/1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 131.30. Important support is at 127.10/125.

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