29/08/2018
USDINR opened at 70.02 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.02-70.30 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.10, loss of 6 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 70.16.RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.03. Rupee has declined 10% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Aug USD/INR closed at 70.11, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.16. Aug Euro/INR closed at 82.03, GBP/INR at 90.39 and Yen/INR at 63.10.
FII’S have bought Rs 728 Cr of Indian Equities in Aug till 21/8 . FII’S have bought Rs 3264 Cr of Indian debt securities in Aug 21/8 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 2758 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 37875 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.40% y’day. DOW climbed 14 points (0.06%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.06% and Hang seng climbed 0.28 % y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1691, Pound at 1.2864,Yen at 111.28.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1209 and WT1Crude at USD 68.57.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.88% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.89%.
Economic news: Global markets were lifted by investor optimism that US-Mexico trade deal may help in averting a Global trade war. Canada is expected to join in this agreement soon. However, US President said that trade talks with China may be inappropriate now as long overdue correction in trade imbalance is necessary.
ECB chief economist said that the central bank’s monetary policy has been “effective in stabilising the euro area economy and creating conditions for a sustained adjustment of inflation towards below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” But for now, “patient, prudent and persistent monetary policy is still needed” for the Eurozone right now.”
Data Highlights : – US house price index climbed 6.3% y/y and consumer confidence climbed to 133.4.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US Pending home sales and GDP(preliminary)
| USD/INR | 70.29 | 70.02 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1691 | 1.1734 | 1.1663 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2864 | 1.2932 | 1.2862 |
| USD/JPY | 111.28 | 111.35 | 110.96 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1697 | 1.1731 | 1.1768 | 1.1802 | 1.1660 | 1.1626 | 1.1589 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2888 | 1.2914 | 1.2958 | 1.2984 | 1.2844 | 1.2818 | 1.2774 |
| USD/JPY | 111.15
|
111.34 | 111.54 | 111.73
|
110.95 | 110.76 | 110.56
|
| USD/INR | 70.14 | 70.25 | 70.41 | 69.99 | 69.87 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.13/1.1120 | 1.1775 | SIDE | DN<1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2660 | 1.2957/1.3050 | DN | SIDE>1.2950 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 69.52/69.30/69.10 | 70.40/70.75 | UP | SIDE<69.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9785 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 69.18. 50 day moving average is at 68.83. 200 day moving average is at 66.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 69.52 and later at 69.30. Important resistance is at 70.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 70.14,S1:69.98, S2:69.87, R1:70.26, R2:70.41.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1775. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.13. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.2957 and later at 1.3050. Important support is at 1.2660.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is 113.
