USDINR opened at 77.49 on Friday and the pair traded in the 77.49-77.61 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.54, loss of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.72. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.58 on 20/05. May USD/INR closed at 77.74, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.70. May Euro/INR closed at 82.23, GBP/INR at 96.95 and Yen/INR at 60.77. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.75% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 597.73 bn as on 29/4.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (20/05)|
In 2022-23, FII’S have sold 40537 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 7327 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 456 points (2.89%) on Friday. DOW climbed 9 points (0.03%).Nikkei climbed 1.27% and Hang Seng climbed 2.96%.
Euro closed the week at 1.0562, Pound at 1.2489, Yen at 127.86.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1845 and WT1Crude at USD 110/Brent at USD 113.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.78% and 3 m libor closed at 1.46%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.35%.
Economic news: Govt reduced central excise duty on Petrol by Rs 8 and Rs 6 on diesel. Govt to give subsidy of Rs 200 per Gas cylinder (up to 12 cylinders), which will benefit 9 Cr users. FM also said that import duty on certain raw materials of steel will also be reduced.
China has cut 5-year lending rate by 15 bps. Market sentiments were lifted by rate cut. ECB officials have started to talk about July rate hike. UK retail sales was strong. BOE official said that risk is tilted towards persistent inflation and more actions are needed to counter inflation.
US Equity indices declined for the seventh straight week and S&P 500 briefly plunged below 20% from its highs, triggering recession worries.
Data highlights: – EU Consumer confidence was reported at -21.
-UK retail sales climbed 1.4% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: No major data release.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.93. 50 day moving average is at 76.48.200 day moving average is at 75.05. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 76. Important supports are at 77.48/77.27/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 77.67, S1:77.60, S2:77.45, R1:77.81, R2:77.89.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.70+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0640. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2165 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2165/1.2030. Important resistance is at 1.2640/1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 131.30. Important support is at 127.10/125.
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