USDINR opened at 77.69 y’day and the pair traded in the 77.64-77.74 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.72, gain of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.58. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.70 on 19/05. May USD/INR closed at 77.70, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.68. May Euro/INR closed at 81.79, GBP/INR at 96.46 and Yen/INR at 60.84. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.65% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 597.73 bn as on 29/4.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (19/05)|
In 2022-23, FII’S have sold 19327 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 3661 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 430 points (2.65%) y’day. DOW declined 236 points (0.65%).Nikkei declined 1.89% and Hang Seng declined 2.54%.
Euro is now at 1.0561, Pound at 1.2447, Yen at 128.15.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1834 and WT1Crude at USD 108.40/Brent at USD 111.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.86% and 3 m libor closed at 1.46%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.35%.
Economic news: ECB minutes of last meeting showed that members were divided on steps to achieve price stability, though there was consensus that normalization of monetary policy is needed. Euro recovered from intra day lows.
Data highlights: – – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 218k and existing home sales dipped to 5.61 mn.
Friday’s calendar: EU Consumer confidence
-UK retail sales
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.87. 50 day moving average is at 76.45.200 day moving average is at 75. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 76. Important supports are at 77.38/77.15 and important resistance is at 77.80/78. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 77.72, S1:77.63, S2:77.57, R1:77.78, R2:77.87.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 77.50+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0640. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2030. Important resistance is at 1.2410/1.2640.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 131.30. Important support is at 127.10.
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