USDINR opened at 77.22 y’day and the pair traded in the 77.15-77.31 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.24, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.32. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.26 on 11/05. May USD/INR closed at 77.41, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.45. May Euro/INR closed at 81.77, GBP/INR at 95.59 and Yen/INR at 59.74. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 597.73 bn as on 29/4.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (10/05) |
| USDINR | 77.26 |
| EURINR | 81.46 |
| GBPINR | 95.34 |
| JPYINR | 59.31 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 73 points (0.45%) y’day. DOW declined 326 points (1.02%).Nikkei climbed 0.18% and Hang Seng climbed 0.97%.
Euro is now at 1.0524, Pound at 1.2241, Yen at 129.70.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1855 and WT1Crude at USD 105/Brent at USD 106.75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.98% and 3 m libor closed at 1.40%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.21%.
Economic news: ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the asset purchases could end “early” in Q3, and interest rate hikes could start “only a few weeks” after that.
US headline CPI rose 0.3% mom in April, above expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core rose 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.4% mom.
Data highlights: – US CPI climbed 0.3% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims and PPI
-UK industrial and manufacturing production.
| USD/INR | 77.31 | 77.15 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0524 | 1.0577 | 1.0503 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2241 | 1.2399 | 1.2233 | |
| USD/JPY | 129.70 | 130.82 | 129.46 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0531 | 1.0559 | 1.0605 | 1.0633 | 1.0485 | 1.0457 | 1.0411 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2289 | 1.2345 | 1.2456 | 1.2512 | 1.2179 | 1.2122 | 1.2012 |
| USD/JPY | 130.04 | 130.62 | 131.40 | 131.98 | 129.26 | 128.68 | 127.90 |
| USD/INR | 77.23 | 77.31 | 77.39 | 77.15 | 77.07 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0490/1.0340 | 1.0750/1.0940 | DN | SIDE>1.0640 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2260 | 1.2410/1.2640 | DN | SIDE>1.2640 |
| USD/JPY | 128.65/127.10 | 131.30 | UP | DN<127.10 |
| USD/INR | 76.95/76.78/76.55 | 77.60 | UP | SIDE<76.78 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9710/09.9450 | 1.00 | SIDE | DN<0.9450 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.53. 50 day moving average is at 76.22.200 day moving average is at 74.92. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 76. Important supports are at 76.95/76.78 and important resistance is at 77.60/78/78.25. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 77.37, S1:77.30, S2:77.22, R1:77.47, R2:77.54.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be hedged at 77+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0750/1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0475/1.0340.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2260. Important resistance is at 1.2410/1.2640.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Important support is at 128.65/127.10.
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