USDINR opened at 77.28 y’day and the pair traded in the 77.20-77.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 77.32, loss of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 77.46. RBI reference rate was fixed at 77.35 on 10/05. May USD/INR closed at 77.45, loss of 21 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 77.66. May Euro/INR closed at 81.84, GBP/INR at 95.68 and Yen/INR at 59.69. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.05% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 597.73 bn as on 29/4.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (10/05)|
In 2022-23, FII’S have sold 6933 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 2675 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 61 points (0.38%) y’day. DOW declined 85 points (0.26%).Nikkei declined 0.58% and Hang Seng declined 1.84%.
Euro is now at 1.0527, Pound at 1.2316, Yen at 130.40.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1832 and WT1Crude at USD 99.60/Brent at USD 102.40.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.98% and 3 m libor closed at 1.40%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.29%.
Economic news: Focus is on US and Indian Inflation.
Data highlights: – EU and German Zew survey was better than expected at -29.5 and -34.3.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US CPI
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.47. 50 day moving average is at 76.18.200 day moving average is at 74.92. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 76. Important supports are at 76.95/76.78 and important resistance is at 77.60/78/78.25. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 77.46, S1:77.32, S2:77.20, R1:77.58, R2:77.72.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be hedged at 77+ levels.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0750/1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0475/1.0340.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2260. Important resistance is at 1.2410/1.2640.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Important support is at 128.65/127.10.
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