USDINR opened at 76.53 on Monday and the pair traded in the 76.35-76.53 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.49, gain of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.43. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.43 on 02/05. May USD/INR closed at 76.71, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.67. May Euro/INR closed at 80.87, GBP/INR at 96.41 and Yen/INR at 59.12. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.75% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 603.69 bn as on 22/4.

In 2022-23, FII’S have sold 5401 Cr of Equities in April till date and have sold Rs 1193 Cr of debt in April, till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 33 points (0.20%) on Monday. DOW climbed 67 points (0.20%).Nikkei declined 0.11% and Hang Seng climbed 0.06%.

Euro is now at 1.0520, Pound at 1.2491, Yen at 130.17.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1863 and WT1Crude at USD 103.10/Brent at USD 105.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.98% and 3 m libor closed at 1.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.12%.

Economic news: April GST Collections hit record high of 1.67 lac Cr. This is due to improved business activity and better compliance. Core sector growth slowed to 4.3% in March after climbing 6% in Feb. Cumulative growth of Core sector in last fiscal stands at 10.4%.

Indian Exports climbed 24.22% to USD 38.19 bn in April. Imports climbed 26.55% to USD 58.26 bn. Trade deficit is at USD 20.09 bn as against USD 15.29 bn in April 2021.

Focus is on US FOMC meeting and BOE rate decisions.

Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) dipped to 55.4 ,construction spending climbed 0.1% m/m and factory orders climbed 2.2% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg) climbed to 55.5,PPI climbed 5.3% m/m , unemployment rate was reported at 6.8%.

-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 55.8.

Wednesday’s calendar: – US ADP employment report, ISM(non mfrg)

-EU PMI(services) and retail sales

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.17. 50 day moving average is at 75.98.200 day moving average is at 74.88. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 75.30. Important resistance is at 76.78 and important supports are at 76.25/76.10. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 76.68, S1:76.57, S2:76.44, R1:76.81, R2:76.92.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be hedged at 76.70//77.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08. Next major support is at 1.0475/1.0340.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2410/1.2260. Important resistance is at 1.2750/1.2850.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Important support is at 121.10/118.70.

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