USDINR opened at 76.64 on Friday and the pair traded in the 76.29-76.66 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.43, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.49. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.42 on 29/04. May USD/INR closed at 76.67, loss of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.84. May Euro/INR closed at 81.22, GBP/INR at 96.55 and Yen/INR at 59.09. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.80% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 603.69 bn as on 22/4.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (29/04)|
In 2022-23, FII’S have sold 5401 Cr of Equities in April till date and have sold Rs 1193 Cr of debt in April, till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 142 points (0.83%) on Friday. DOW declined 939 points (-2.77%).Nikkei climbed 1.75% and Hang Seng climbed 4%.
Euro is now at 1.0543, Pound at 1.2573, Yen at 129.85.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1897 and WT1Crude at USD 104/Brent at USD 106.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.94% and 3 m libor closed at 1.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.14%.
Economic news: US headline PCE price index accelerated from 6.3% yoy to 6.6% yoy, above expectation of 6.5% yoy.
Eurozone CPI ticked up from 7.4% yoy to 7.5% yoy in April, matched expectations. CPI core rose from 2.9% yoy to 3.5% yoy, above expectation of 3.1% yoy. Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q1, slightly below expectation of 0.3% qoq. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, Eurozone GDP grew 5.0% yoy.
Dollar index surged as high as 103.92 last week, hitting the highest level since 2002. US Equity indices declined steeply, following disappointing results from some leading tech companies.
Focus is on FOMC meeting and US employment data, in coming week.
Data highlights: – US personal spending climbed 1.1% m/m, income rose 0.5% m/m and Core PCE index climbed 0.3% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.14. 50 day moving average is at 75.97.200 day moving average is at 74.88. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 75.30. Important resistance is at 76.78 and important supports are at 76.25/76.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 76.68, S1:76.47, S2:76.29, R1:76.87, R2:77.07.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be hedged at 76.70//77.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08. Next major support is at 1.0475/1.0340.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2410/1.2260. Important resistance is at 1.2750/1.2850.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Important support is at 121.10/118.70
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