USDINR opened at 76.63 y’day and the pair traded in the 76.43-76.71 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.49, loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.52. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.61 on 28/04. May USD/INR closed at 76.84, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.84. May Euro/INR closed at 80.86, GBP/INR at 95.86 and Yen/INR at 58.88. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.80% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (28/04) |
| USDINR | 76.61 |
| EURINR | 80.60 |
| GBPINR | 96.01 |
| JPYINR | 58.88 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 206 points (1.21%) y’day. DOW climbed 614 points (1.85%).Nikkei climbed 1.75% and Hang Seng climbed 1.85%.
Euro is now at 1.0526, Pound at 1.2494, Yen at 130.40.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1902 and WT1Crude at USD 105/Brent at USD 107.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.82% and 3 m libor closed at 1.06%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.12%.
Economic news: US real GDP contracted by 1.4% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) in the first quarter of 2022 – a significant slowdown from Q4’s 6.9% (annualized). Growth was pulled lower by a sharp widening in the trade deficit and a pullback in inventory investment, shaving a combined 4pp from headline growth. Abstracting from this, domestic demand expanded by a healthy 2.6%, a big improvement from its 1.5% pace in the second half of 2021.
Despite economic contraction, Fed is likely to raise rates by 50 bps in upcoming meeting and will signal another 50 bps rate hike in June.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 180k.
Friday’s calendar: – US personal spending, income and Core PCE index
| USD/INR | 76.71 | 76.43 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0526 | 1.0562 | 1.0473 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2494 | 1.2570 | 1.2412 | |
| USD/JPY | 130.40 | 131.25 | 128.36 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0513 | 1.0554 | 1.0605 | 1.0646 | 1.0462 | 1.0421 | 1.0370 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2482 | 1.2552 | 1.2640 | 1.2710 | 1.2394 | 1.2324 | 1.2236 |
| USD/JPY | 130.13 | 131.90 | 133.02 | 134.79 | 129.01 | 127.24 | 126.12 |
| USD/INR | 76.54 | 76.65 | 76.82 | 76.37 | 76.26 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0805 | 1.1180 | DN | SIDE>1.1185 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2650 | 1.30/1.3175 | DN | UP>1.33 |
| USD/JPY | 121.10/118..70 | UP | DN<116.40 | |
| USD/INR | 76.43/76.10 | 76.78 | UP | SIDE<76.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9375 | 0.9625 | SIDE | DN<0.9375 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.12. 50 day moving average is at 75.94.200 day moving average is at 74.83. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 75.30. Important resistance is at 76.78 and important supports are at 76.43/76.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 76.81, S1:76.97, S2:77.10, R1:76.67, R2:76.52.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be hedged at 76.70//77.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0650.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.30/1.3175.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Important support is at 121.10/118.70.
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