USDINR opened at 76.69 y’day and the pair traded in the 76.50-76.75 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.52, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.58. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.64 on 27/04. May USD/INR closed at 76.84, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.84. Apr Euro/INR closed at 81.56, GBP/INR at 96.72 and Yen/INR at 60.19. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.85% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (27/04) |
| USDINR | 76.64 |
| EURINR | 81.45 |
| GBPINR | 96.47 |
| JPYINR | 59.89 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 162 points (0.94%) y’day. DOW climbed 61 points (0.19%).Nikkei declined 1.17% and Hang Seng climbed 0.06%.
Euro is now at 1.0534, Pound at 1.2532, Yen at 128.68.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1882 and WT1Crude at USD 101/Brent at USD 103.75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.83% and 3 m libor closed at 1.06%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.08%.
Economic news: German economy ministry cuts 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, down from January’s projection of 3.6%. Nevertheless, 2023 GDP growth forecast is upgraded slightly from 2.3% to 2.5%. It expects Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resulted sanctions and higher energy prices will weigh on output.
Data highlights: – US pending home sales declined -1.2% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims and GDP
| USD/INR | 76.75 | 76.50 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0534 | 1.0655 | 1.0513 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2532 | 1.2602 | 1.2503 | |
| USD/JPY | 128.68 | 128.60 | 126.94 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0575 | 1.0637 | 1.0717 | 1.0778 | 1.0495 | 1.0433 | 1.0353 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2548 | 1.2593 | 1.2647 | 1.2692 | 1.2494 | 1.2449 | 1.2394 |
| USD/JPY | 127.99 | 129.04 | 129.65 | 130.69 | 127.38 | 126.33 | 125.72 |
| USD/INR | 76.59 | 76.68 | 76.84 | 76.43 | 76.34 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0805 | 1.1180 | DN | SIDE>1.1185 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2650 | 1.30/1.3175 | DN | UP>1.33 |
| USD/JPY | 121.10/118..70 | UP | DN<116.40 | |
| USD/INR | 76.10/75.70 | 76.78 | UP | SIDE<76.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9375 | 0.9625 | SIDE | DN<0.9375 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.10. 50 day moving average is at 75.91.200 day moving average is at 74.83. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 75.30. Important resistance is at 76.50/76.70 and important supports are at 76.10/75.70. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:
PP: 76.87, S1:76.73, S2:76.62, R1:76.98, R2:77.12.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be hedged at 76.70//77.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0650.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.30/1.3175.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Important support is at 121.10/118.70.
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