FX MORNING UPDATE 

USDINR opened at 76.40 y’day and the pair traded in the 76.17-76.52 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.21, loss of 29 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.50. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.41 on 20/04Apr USD/INR closed at 76.28, loss of 30 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.58. Apr Euro/INR closed at 82.76, GBP/INR at 99.60 and Yen/INR at 59.72. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.08% p.a.  FX reserves fell USD 2.47 bn and is at USD 604 bn as on April 8 th.

PAIRSRBI REF RATE (20/04)
USDINR76.41
EURINR82.62
GBPINR99.57
JPYINR59.39

In 2022-23, FII’S have bought 3188 Cr of Equities in April till date and have bought Rs 987 Cr of debt in April, till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 177 points (1.05%) y’day. DOW climbed 249 points (0.71%).Nikkei climbed 0.86% and Hang Seng declined 0.40%.

Euro is now at 1.0840, Pound at 1.3058, Yen at 128.28.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1957 and WT1Crude at USD 103/Brent at USD 107.55.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.855% and 3 m libor closed at 1.00%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.10%.

Economic news: ECB Governing Council member said in a Bloomberg interview, that it’s possible to hike interest rate in July. Meanwhile, QE could end at the end of June but the policy members will have to discuss it with new economic forecasts on hand.

Euro recovered marginally.

Data highlights: – US existing home sales was reported at 5.77 mn.

-EU industrial production climbed 0.7% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims

-EU CPI

USD/INR   76.5276.17
EUR/USD     1.08401.08671.0784
GBP/USD     1.30581.30751.2997
USD/JPY     128.28129.40127.47

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
EURO/USD1.08341.08841.09171.09671.08011.07511.0718
GBP/USD1.30471.30971.31251.31751.30191.29691.2942
USD/JPY128.29129.11130.21131.03127.18126.37125.26
USD/INR76.3076.4376.65 76.0875.95 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks
EURO/USD1.08051.1180DNSIDE>1.1185
GBP/USD1.301.33/1.3440DNUP>1.33
USD/JPY121.10/118..70UPDN<116.40
USD/INR75.95/75.7076.50/76.70UPSIDE<75.95
USD/CHF0.920.9383/0.9460SIDEUP>0.94

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.04. 50 day moving average is at 75.74.200 day moving average is at 74.78. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 75.30. Important resistance is at 76.70/77 and important supports are at 76.35/76.20. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 76.35, S1:76.11, S2:75.96, R1:76.51, R2:76.74.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be hedged at 76.70//77.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Important support is at 121.10/118.70

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