USDINR opened at 76.18 on Wednesday and the pair traded in the 76.13-76.26 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.18, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.14. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.22 on 13/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.25, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.25. Apr Euro/INR closed at 82.76, GBP/INR at 99.30 and Yen/INR at 60.77. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.08% p.a.  FX reserves fell USD 2.47 bn and is at USD 604 bn as on April 8 th.

In 2022-23, FII’S have bought 3188 Cr of Equities in April till date and have bought Rs 987 Cr of debt in April, till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 55 points (0.31%) on Wednesday. DOW declined 113 points (0.33%).Nikkei declined 0.29% and Hang Seng climbed 0.67%.

Euro closed at 1.0809, Pound at 1.3062, Yen at 126.36.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1972 and WT1Crude at USD 106.50/Brent at USD 111.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.83% and 3 m libor closed at 1.00%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.21%.

Economic news: ECB announced that the Asset Purchase Program “should be concluded in the third quarter. Monthly net purchases under the APP will continue to be EUR 40B in April, EUR 30B in May and EUR 20B in June. The calibration of net purchases for Q3 will be data-dependent and depend on the outlook.

Interest rates are held unchanged with main refinancing rate, marginal lending facility rate and deposit rate at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. Adjustments to rates will take place “some time” after ending the APP and will be “gradual”.

Euro declined after ECB meeting.

Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 1.4% m/m. Core retail sales climbed 1.1% m/m. Weekly jobless claims rose marginally to 185k.

-US industrial production climbed 0.9% m/m.

-UK PPI(output) rose 2% m/m , CPI climbed 7% y/y and RPI climbed 9% y/y.

Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.02. 50 day moving average is at 75.65.200 day moving average is at 74.78. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 75.30. Important resistance is at 76.35/76.50 and important supports are at 75.95/75.70/75.55. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 76.24, S1:76.13, S2:76.02, R1:76.35, R2:76.46.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports can be hedged, on decline to 75.95/75.70/75.30. Exports can be hedged at 76.30/76.50/77.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Important support is at 121.10/118.70.

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