USDINR opened at 76.01 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.97-76.18 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.14, gain of 23 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.91. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.11 on 12/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.25, gain of 22 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.03. Apr Euro/INR closed at 82.93, GBP/INR at 99.25 and Yen/INR at 60.87. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.08% p.a.  

In 2022-23, FII’S bought 7707 Cr of Equities in April till date and have bought Rs 1402 Cr of debt in April, till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 144 points (0.82%) y’day. DOW declined 88 points (0.26%) . Nikkei declined 1.81% and Hang Seng climbed 0.52%.

Euro closed at 1.0823, Pound at 1.3003, Yen at 125.58.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1965 and WT1Crude at USD 101/Brent at USD 105.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.74% and 3 m libor closed at 1.00%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.19%.

Economic news: US consumer price index surged 1.2% last month, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. The CPI advanced 0.8% in February. This is due to surge in Gasoline prices. CPI data will put further pressure on Fed to consider 50 bps rate hike.

ECB meeting outcome will be keenly watched.

Data highlights: – US CPI climbed 1.2% m/m.

-EU Zew survey was in deep negative zone of -43.

-UK unemployment rate was reported at 3.8%.

Wednesday’s calendar: – EU PPI

-UK PPI, CPI and RPI.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.08. 50 day moving average is at 75.63.200 day moving average is at 74.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 75.30. Important resistance is at 76.20/76.32/76.50 and important supports are at 75.95/75.70/75.55. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 76.18, S1:76.08, S2:75.91, R1:76.35, R2:76.45.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports can be hedged, on decline to 75.30/74.95. Exports can be hedged at 76.10.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 125.10. Important support is at 121.10/118.70

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