USDINR opened at 75.97 on Friday and the pair traded in the 75.71-76.01 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.91, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.96. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.78 on 08/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.03, loss of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76,18. Apr Euro/INR closed at 82.72, GBP/INR at 99.18 and Yen/INR at 61.37. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.82% p.a. 10 Year yield jumped 16 bps to 7.06%.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (08/04) |
| USDINR | 75.78 |
| EURINR | 82.31 |
| GBPINR | 98.89 |
| JPYINR | 61.08 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 149 points (0.82%) on Friday. DOW climbed 137 points (0.40%) . Nikkei climbed 0.36% and Hang Seng climbed 0.29%.
Euro closed at 1.0878, Pound at 1.3032, Yen at 124.33.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1948 and WT1Crude at USD 97.85/Brent at USD 102.35.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.70% and 3 m libor closed at 1.00%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.06%.
Economic news: RBI maintained accommodative stance and kept repo rates steady. Reverse repo was hiked by 40 bps. GDP growth has been revised down to 7.2% from 7.8% and inflation is expected to average 5.7% in 2022-23. RBI Governor pledged to use all available tools to maintain economic stability as Global and Indian economy face challenges from Russian invasion.
Indian FX reserves dipped steeply to 606 bn as on April 1 st. FX reserves had swelled to USD 650 bn. RBI’S intervention to maintain steady FX rates may have been the primary reason for decline in reserves.
Data highlights: – No major data
Monday’s calendar: – UK industrial production, manufacturing production and GDP
| USD/INR | 76.01 | 75.71 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0878 | 1.0892 | 1.0836 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3070 | 1.3087 | 1.2981 | |
| USD/JPY | 123.73 | 124.69 | 123.67 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0868 | 1.0901 | 1.0924 | 1.0844 | 1.0812 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3046 | 1.3111 | 1.3152 | 1.3005 | 1.2940 | ||
| USD/JPY | 124.03 | 124.39 | 125.05 | 123.37 | 123.01 | ||
| USD/INR | 75.87 | 76.04 | 76.18 | 75.73 | 75.56 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0805 | 1.1180 | DN | SIDE>1.1185 |
| GBP/USD | 1.30 | 1.33/1.3440 | DN | UP>1.33 |
| USD/JPY | 121.10/118..70 | 125.10 | UP | DN<116.40 |
| USD/INR | 75.30 | 75.99/ 76.08 | SIDE | UP>76.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92 | 0.9383/0.9460 | SIDE | UP>0.94 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.08. 50 day moving average is at 75.58.200 day moving average is at 74.70. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77. Important resistance is at 76.08 and important supports are at 75.55/75.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:
PP: 76.01, S1:75.85, S2:75.69, R1:76.18, R2:76.33.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports can be hedged, on decline to 75.30/74.95. Exports can be hedged at 76.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 125.10. Important support is at 121.10/118.70.
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