USDINR opened at 75.91 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.78-75.99 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.96, gain of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.76. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.80 on 07/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.18, gain of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76,04. Apr Euro/INR closed at 83.12, GBP/INR at 99.63 and Yen/INR at 61.65. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.85% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (07/04)|
In 2021-22, FII’S have net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 168 points (0.94%) y’day. DOW climbed 87 points (0.25%) . Nikkei declined 1.69% and Hang Seng declined 1.23%.
Euro closed at 1.0862, Pound at 1.3070, Yen at 123.73.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1934 and WT1Crude at USD 96.10/Brent at USD 100.45.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.64% and 3 m libor closed at 1.00%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.92%.
Economic news: The accounts of ECB’s March 9-10 meeting noted that “while the Russian invasion of Ukraine had increased uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic outlook, related risks to the inflation outlook were seen as largely one-sided, with experience suggesting that wars tended to be inflationary”. Thus, the Governing Council could “no longer afford to look through higher inflation, even if it was driven by an adverse supply shock.”
ECB decided at the meeting to revise the plan for APP net purchases, with the option to end after June. “Easing bias” was removed from the forward guidance. Interest rate hike would come “shorter” after ending the net purchases, depending on incoming data.
Focus is on RBI meeting.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims declined to 166k.
-EU retail sales climbed 0.3% m/m. German Industrial production climbed 0.2% m/m.
Friday’s calendar: –
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.11. 50 day moving average is at 75.55.200 day moving average is at 74.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77. Important resistance is at 76.08 and important supports are at 75.55/75.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:
PP: 76.12, S1:76.02, S2:75.86, R1:76.28, R2:76.33.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports can be hedged, on decline to 75.20/74.95. Exports can be hedged at 76.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0805. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 125.10. Important support is at 121.10/118.70.
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