USDINR opened at 75.51 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.48-75.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.76, gain of 43 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.33. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.61 on 06/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.04, gain of 51 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.53. Apr Euro/INR closed at 83.08, GBP/INR at 99.50 and Yen/INR at 61.55. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.85% p.a.  

In 2021-22, FII’S have net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 149 points (0.83%) y’day. DOW declined 144 points (0.42%) . Nikkei declined 1.58% and Hang Seng declined 1.87%.

Euro closed at 1.0908, Pound at 1.3072, Yen at 123.69.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1924 and WT1Crude at USD 97.40/Brent at USD 102.40.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.58% and 3 m libor closed at 1.00%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.92%.

Economic news: The Fed is “well placed to begin the process of reducing the size of the balance sheet as early as after the conclusion of its upcoming meeting in May,” the Fed minutes showed on Wednesday.

Under the plan, the Fed would allow about $60 billion in Treasury securities and about $35 billion in agency MBS to roll off its balance sheet, which current stands at nearly $9 trillion.

Fed members also discussed the prospect of 50-basis-point rate hikes at one or more up coming meetings, but this was less hawkish than market expectations of 50 basis points at most meetings. 

Focus is on RBI meeting, due on Friday.

Data highlights: – -German factory orders declined -2.2% m/m. EU PPI climbed 1.1% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 59.1.

Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims

-EU retail sales

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.16. 50 day moving average is at 75.46.200 day moving average is at 74.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77. Important resistances are at 75.95/76.08 and important supports are at 75.20/74.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 75.87, S1:75.70, S2:75.37, R1:76.20, R2:76.37.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports can be hedged, on decline to 75.20/74.95. Exports can be hedged at 76.10.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0805. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 125.10. Important support is at 121.10/118.70.

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