USDINR opened at 75.53 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.31-75.55 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.33, loss of 22 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.55. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.39 on 05/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.53, loss of 22 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.75. Apr Euro/INR closed at 83.03, GBP/INR at 99.21 and Yen/INR at 61.62. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.85% p.a.  

In 2021-22, FII’S have net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 96 points (0.53%) y’day. DOW declined 280 points (0.80%) . Nikkei climbed 0.19% and Hang Seng climbed 2.10% on Monday.

Euro closed at 1.0969, Pound at 1.3117, Yen at 122.56.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1919 and WT1Crude at USD 101.60/Brent at USD 106.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.61% and 3 m libor closed at 1.00%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.90%.

Economic news: On EU prospects, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global said: “The further reopening of the eurozone economy amid the fading Omicron wave has provided a welcome tailwind to business activity in March… However, the resilience of the economy will be tested in the coming months by headwinds which include a further spike in energy costs and other commodity prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as worsening supply chain issues arising from the war and a marked deterioration in business optimism regarding prospects for the year ahead…

“The outlook for growth has therefore deteriorated at a time when the inflation outlook has worsened. A recession is by no means assured, as the extent to which the economy could suffer in the coming months will depend on the duration of the war and any changes to both fiscal and monetary policy.

Federal Reserve officials continued to talk up the prospect of aggressive monetary policy in upcoming meetings. US 10 Year Yield surged to 2.61%.

Focus is on RBI meeting and Fed minutes. RBI meeting is on Friday.

Data highlights: – US ISM(non mfrg) dipped marginally to 58.3.

-EU PMI(services) climbed to 55.6.

-UK PMI(services) climbed to 62.6.

Wednesday’s calendar: – US FOMC Minutes

-German factory orders

-UK PMI(construction)

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.22. 50 day moving average is at 75.44.200 day moving average is at 74.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77. Important resistances are at 75.78/76.08 and important supports are at 75.20/74.95. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 75.64, S1:75.38, S2:75.24, R1:75.78, R2:76.04.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports can be hedged, on decline to 75.20/74.95.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0805. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 125.10. Important support is at 121.10/118.70

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