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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 697 Comments
  • January 25, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.14 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.11-83.17 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.13, loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.15.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.15 on 24/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 83.16 y’day, gain of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.08. Jan Euro/INR closed at 90.60, GBP/INR at 105.84 and Yen/INR at 56.11. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.86% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 618.93 bn, as on Jan 12 th. Reserves climbed by USD 1.93 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (23/01)

USDINR

83.15

EURINR

90.33

GBPINR

105.61

JPYINR

56.21

In Jan, FPI’S have sold Rs 15154 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 14281 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 215 points (1.01%) Y’day. US S&P climbed 4 points (0.08%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.81% and Hang Seng climbed 3.56% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0877, Pound at 1.2710, Yen at 147.75.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2015 and WT1Crude at USD 75/Brent at USD 80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.17% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.18%.

Economic news: US GDP and Core PCE index are important events for the week. There is no clear identified theme in FX market now.

Bundesbank issued a cautionary message about China’s current economic struggles and their potential impact on Germany. The report notes that China is grappling with “significant economic problems,” and the relationship between China and Western industrial nations has “noticeably deteriorated recently.” Such geopolitical risks, if they materialize, could have severe repercussions for the German economy.

EU PMI Composite rose from 47.6 to 47.9, a 6-month high. UK PMI Composite rose from 52.1 to 52.5, a 7-month high.  Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that UK business activity growth has “accelerated for a third straight month”. He described this as a “promising start” to the year.

Data highlights: – EU PMI(mfrg-flash) improved to 46.1 and PMI(services- flash) declined to 48.4.

-UK PMI(mfrg-flash) climbed to 47.3 and PMI(services-flash) improved to 53.8.

Thursday’s calendar : –  US Weekly jobless claims and durables order

-US GDP and new home sales

USD/INR

 

  

 83.17

83.11

EUR/USD

1.0877

  

1.0933

1.0845

GBP/USD

1.2710

  

1.2776

1.2667

USD/JPY

147.75

  

148.40

146.65

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0887

1.0929

1.0975

1.1017

1.0841

1.0799

1.0753

GBP/USD

1.2725

1.2773

1.2825

1.2873

1.2674

1.2625

1.2574

USD/JPY

147.52

148.39

149.28

150.15

146.64

145.76

144.88

USD/INR

83.13

83.16

83.19

 

83.09

83.07

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0875/1.0760

1.1010/1.1275

SIDE

UP>1.1010

GBP/USD

1.2610

1.2810/1.30

SIDE

DN<1.2610

USD/JPY

142.85/141.70

146.50/147.50

UP

DN<141

USD/INR

82.80

83.15/83.24

SIDE

UP>83.35

USD/CHF

0.8330

0.8650

DN

UP>0.8650

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.15. 50 day moving average is at 83.22.200 day moving average is at 82.71. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.17/83.24. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 83.14, S1:83.10, S2:83.08, R1:83.17, R2:83.20.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0875/1.0740. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2610/1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2810/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 140. Important resistance is at 146.50/147.50 and support is at 140.

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