USDINR opened at 75.78 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.42-75.79 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.55, loss of 23 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.78. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.55 on 04/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.75, loss of 21 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.96. Apr Euro/INR closed at 84.53 GBP/INR at 99.32 and Yen/INR at 61.86. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.75% p.a.  

In 2021-22, FII’S have net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 383 points (2.13%) y’day. DOW climbed 103 points (0.30%) . Nikkei climbed 0.25% and Hang Seng climbed 2.10% y’day.

Euro closed at 1.0969, Pound at 1.3117, Yen at 122.56.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1929 and WT1Crude at USD 105/Brent at USD 109.25.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.39% and 3 m libor closed at 1.00%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.90%.

Economic news: HDFC and HDFC Bank merger lifted Equity markets. Rupee gained on positive sentiment. GST Collections hit new high with collection of Rs 1.42 lac Cr in March. Exports hit USD 418 bn in 2021-22 fiscal.

Euro falls broadly on expectation that EU is going to impose another round of sanctions against Russian following war crimes in Ukraine. Sentix said the Eurozone economy is “being pushed into recession by the Ukraine conflict and the accompanying sanctions and uncertainties.”

Focus is on RBI meeting and Fed minutes. RBI meeting is on Friday.

Data highlights: – US Factory orders declined -0.5% m/m.

-EU Sentix investor confidence survey declined to -18.

Tuesday’s calendar: – US ISM(non mfrg)

-EU PMI(services)

-UK PMI(services)

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.26. 50 day moving average is at 75.42.200 day moving average is at 74.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77. Important resistances are at 76.48/76.70 and important supports are at 75.65/75.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 75.84, S1:75.56, S2:75.37, R1:76.03, R2:76.31.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR exports can be hedged, despite technical weakness in Rupee.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1180/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0805. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 125.10. Important support is at 121.10/118.70.

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