USDINR opened at 75.72 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.66-75.83 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.78, loss of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.91. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.81 on 31/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.96, loss of 21 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.17. Apr Euro/INR closed at 84.38 GBP/INR at 99.74 and Yen/INR at 62.52. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.75% p.a.  

In Mar, FII’S have net sold Rs 47000 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 4369 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 104891 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 75 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 33 points (-0.19%) y’day. DOW declined 550 points (-1.56%) . Nikkei declined 0.73% and Hang Seng declined 0.76% y’day.

Euro closed at 1.1069, Pound at 1.3135, Yen at 122.19.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1933 and WT1Crude at USD 99.80/Brent at USD 104.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.375% and 3 m libor closed at 0.95%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.82%.

Economic news: US PCE price index for February increased 6.4% yoy, up from January’s 6.0% yoy, but missed expectation of 6.7% yoy. The increase reflected rise in both goods and services. This will put more pressure on Fed.

Focus is now on US employment report and ISM data.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 202k, Personal income climbed 0.5% m/m, spending climbed 0.2% n/n and Core PCE index climbed 0.4% m/m.

-German retail sales climbed 0.3% m/m.

-UK GDP (final) was reported at 1.3% q/q.

Friday’s calendar: – US Nonfarm payrolls, ISM (mfrg) and construction spending

-EU CPI, PMI(mfrg)

-UK PMI(mfrg)

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 76.28. 50 day moving average is at 75.45.200 day moving average is at 74.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 77. Important resistances are at 76.48/76.70 and important supports are at 75.65/75.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 76.01 S1:75.82, S2:75.68, R1:76.15, R2:76.34.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR exports can be hedged, despite technical weakness in Rupee.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1140/1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0805.. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0805. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 123.40. Important support is at 118.70.

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