USDINR opened gap up at 76.96 on Friday and the pair traded in the 76.80-76.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.97, gain of 80 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.17. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.92 on 07/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 76.97, gain of 62 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.35. Mar Euro/INR closed at 83.84, GBP/INR at 101.63 and Yen/INR at 67.05. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.08% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (07/03) |
| USDINR | 76.92 |
| EURINR | 83.71 |
| GBPINR | 101.66 |
| JPYINR | 66.93 |
In Mar, FII’S have net sold Rs 10586 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1728 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 68477 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 2726 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 382 points (-2.35%) y’day. DOW declined 797 points (-2.37%). Nikkei declined 2.94% and Hang Seng declined 3.87% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0862, Pound at 1.3112, Yen at 115.48.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1991 and WT1Crude at USD 117.40/Brent at USD 122.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.76% and 3 m libor closed at 0.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.88%.
Economic news: Crude rallied past USD 125 as EU and US hinted at ban of Russian Crude Oil imports. War and sanctions have taken a heavy toll on markets and economies. Sanctions are biting the whole world as it is inflationary.
Rupee continued to slide hitting historical low level of 76.98 as RBI was defensive in its intervention considering the Global situation.
Data highlights: – EU sentix investor confidence survey dipped to -7, German factory orders climbed 1.8% m/m and retail sales climbed 2% m/m.
Tuesday’s calendar: -German industrial production
| USD/INR | 76.98 | 76.80 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0862 | 1.0930 | 1.0807 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3112 | 1.3229 | 1.3102 | |
| USD/JPY | 115.48 | 115.48 | 114.83 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0868 | 1.0929 | 1.0991 | 1.1052 | 1.0806 | 1.0745 | 1.0683 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3148 | 1.3194 | 1.3275 | 1.3321 | 1.3067 | 1.3021 | 1.2940 |
| USD/JPY | 115.23 | 115.63 | 115.88 | 116.27 | 114.98 | 114.58 | 114.33 |
| USD/INR | 76.91 | 77.03 | 77.10 | 76.84 | 76.72 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0885/1.1.0770 | 1.1130/1.1280 | DN | UP>1.1280 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3170/1.30 | 1.3440 | DN | UP>1.3630 |
| USD/JPY | 114.40 | 116.30 | UP | DN<114.40 |
| USD/INR | 76.35 | UP | SIDE<76.35 | |
| USD/CHF | 0.9085 | 0.9345 | SIDE | DN<0.9085 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 75.27. 50 day moving average is at 74.82.200 day moving average is at 74.32. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.35. Important resistance is at 76.35 and important support is at 75.70. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Mar contract are:
PP: 77.10, S1:76.87, S2:76.50, R1:77.46, R2:77.70.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports can be hedged, despite technical weakness in Rupee.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0880/1.0760.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1485. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3650 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.3170/1.30. Important resistance is at 1.3440.
USD/YEN: The pair is between moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 116.30. Next important resistance is at 116.30. Important support is at 114.40/113.50.
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