USDINR opened at 76.07 on Friday and the pair traded in the 75.98-76.22 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.17, gain of 26 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.91. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.71 on 03/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 76.35, gain of 19 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.16. Mar Euro/INR closed at 83.97, GBP/INR at 101.54 and Yen/INR at 66.15. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.08% p.a.  

In Mar, FII’S have net sold Rs 10586 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1728 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 68477 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 2726 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 252 points (-1.53%) on Friday. DOW declined 180 points (-0.53%). Nikkei declined 2,23% and Hang Seng declined 2.5% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.1020, Pound at 1.3334, Yen at 115.41.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1974 and WT1Crude at USD 115/Brent at USD 118.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.74% and 3 m libor closed at 0.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.82%.

Economic news: US non-farm payroll employment rose 678k in February, above expectation of 438k. Employment was still down -2.1m, or -1.4% from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Unemployment rate dropped from 4.0% to 3.8%, better than expectation of 3.9%. That’s still above pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. Number of unemployed edged down to 6.3m, above pre-pandemic level of 5.7m. Average hourly earnings was flat mom, well below expectation of 0.6% mom.

Rupee continued to slide despite soft intervention by RBI. Crude price rise, FII’S selling of USD and overall strength in USD against crosses contributed to negative sentiment. Euro sell off accelerated as Russian invasion intensified with attacks on Nuclear power plants. European indices witnessed big sell off.

Data highlights: – -EU retail sales rose 0.2% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 59.1.

Monday’s calendar: -EU sentix investor confidence survey, German factory orders and retail sales.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 75.16. 50 day moving average is at 74.80.200 day moving average is at 74.32. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.35. Important resistance is at 76.35 and important support is at 75.70. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Mar contract are:

PP: 76.30, S1:76.19, S2:76.04, R1:76.45, R2:76.56.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR exports can be hedged, despite technical weakness in Rupee.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1.0880/1.0760.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1485. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3650 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.3170/1.30. Important resistance is at 1.3440.

USD/YEN: The pair is between moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 116.30. Next important resistance is at 116.30. Important support is at 114.40/113.50.

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