USDINR opened at 75.76 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.61-75.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.91, gain of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.71. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.71 on 03/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 76.16, gain of 24 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.92. Mar Euro/INR closed at 84.49, GBP/INR at 101.81 and Yen/INR at 65.77. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.05% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (02/03) |
| USDINR | 75.71 |
| EURINR | 84.03 |
| GBPINR | 101.49 |
| JPYINR | 65.45 |
In Feb, FII’S have net sold Rs 25270 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 2054 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 57891 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 4454 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 107 points (-0.65%) y’day. DOW declined 97 points (-0.29%). Nikkei climbed 0.70% and Hang Seng climbed 0.55% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1020, Pound at 1.3334, Yen at 115.41.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1929 and WT1Crude at USD 111.80/Brent at USD 113.45.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.76% and 3 m libor closed at 0.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.82%.
Economic news: Rupee opened lower at 75.76 as Geo political situation worsened and Crude oil rallied further to cross USD 115. RBI intervention smoothened USDINR pair’s climb to 75.96.
US ISM(services) data was softer than expected. In the accounts of February ECB meeting, it was argued that monetary policy in the current environment was to “ensure that inflation expectations remained firmly anchored” and to “avoid the risk of the prevailing high inflation becoming entrenched.”
Data highlights: – US ISM(non mfrg) declined to 56.5, factory orders climbed 1.4% m/m and weekly jobless claims declined to 215k.
-EU PMI(services) dipped to 55.5 and PPI climbed 5.2% m/m. Unemployment rate is at 6.8%.
-UK PMI(services) dipped to 60.5.
Friday’s calendar: US Non farm payrolls
-EU retail sales
-UK PMI(construction)
| USD/INR | 75.97 | 75.61 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1020 | 1.1116 | 1.1034 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3334 | 1.3418 | 1.3318 | |
| USD/JPY | 115.41 | 115.82 | 115.39 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1072 | 1.1110 | 1.1154 | 1.1192 | 1.1028 | 1.0990 | 1.0946 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3362 | 1.3406 | 1.3462 | 1.3507 | 1.3306 | 1.3262 | 1.3206 |
| USD/JPY | 115.56 | 115.73 | 115.99 | 116.16 | 115.30 | 115.13 | 114.87 |
| USD/INR | 75.83 | 76.05 | 76.19 | 75.69 | 75.47 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.11 | 1.1280/1.14/1.1485 | DN | UP>1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3275 | 1.3485/1.3650 | DN | UP>1.3630 |
| USD/JPY | 114.40 | 116.30 | UP | DN<114.40 |
| USD/INR | 74.95 | 76.30 | UP | DN<74.95 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9175/0.9085 | 0.9345 | SIDE | DN<0.9085 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 75.10. 50 day moving average is at 74.79.200 day moving average is at 74.32. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.35. Important resistance is at 76.30 and important support is at 74.95. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Mar contract are:
PP: 76.04, S1:75.91, S2:75.66, R1:76.29, R2:76.42.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports can be hedged at 75.50 +.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1. 11.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1485. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1120.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170. Important support is at 1.3275/1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3485/1.3650
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 116.35. Important support is at 114.40/113.50
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