USDINR opened at 75.71 on Monday and the pair traded in the 75.29-75.76 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.34, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.29. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.48 on 28/02. Mar USD/INR closed at 75.59, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.58. Mar Euro/INR closed at 84.88, GBP/INR at 101.27 and Yen/INR at 65.48. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.05% p.a. FX market was closed y’day.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (28/02) |
| USDINR | 75.48 |
| EURINR | 84.26 |
| GBPINR | 100.92 |
| JPYINR | 65.34 |
In Feb, FII’S have net sold Rs 25270 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 2054 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 57891 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 4454 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 135 points (0.81%) on Monday. DOW declined 597 points (-1.76%). Nikkei declined -1.38% and Hang Seng declined -0.59% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1128, Pound at 1.3333, Yen at 115.03.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1934 and WT1Crude at USD 106.60/Brent at USD 107.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.75% and 3 m libor closed at 0.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.75%.
Economic news: Q3 GDP climbed 5.4% y/y as against expectation of 6%. In Q2, GDP grew by 8.5%. FY 22 GDP growth has been revised lower to 8.9% as against earlier estimate of 9.2%. Agri sector grew by 2.6%. Mfrg climbed only 0.2% in Q3. Pvt Consumption grew by 7%. Gross fixed capital formation, an indicator of investment activity, grew by just 2 per cent. Government final consumption expenditure provided support by growing at 3.4 per cent. During Q3FY22, mining at 8.8% and public admin, defence and other of 16.8% were recorded the highest growth in the broader sectors. Construction sector contracted -2.8%. Third wave restrictions, supply bottlenecks, semi conductor shortages and Geo political reasons have contributed to lower than expected Q3 GDP growth.
Indian Feb GST Collection crossed 1.33 lac Cr.
Data highlights: – US ISM (mfrg) climbed to 105.6 and construction spending climbed 1.3% m/m.
-EU PMI(mfrg) dipped to 58.2 and UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 58.
Wednesday’s calendar: US ADP report
-EU CPI
| USD/INR | 75.76 | 75.29 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1128 | 1.1275 | 1.1165 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3333 | 1.3441 | 1.3365 | |
| USD/JPY | 115.03 | 115.78 | 115.14 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1152 | 1.1214 | 1.1295 | 1.1357 | 1.1071 | 1.1009 | 1.0928 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3358 | 1.3414 | 1.3494 | 1.3550 | 1.3279 | 1.3222 | 1.3143 |
| USD/JPY | 114.94 | 115.19 | 115.54 | 115.78 | 114.59 | 114.34 | 113.99 |
| USD/INR | 75.46 | 75.63 | 75.93 | 75.16 | 74.99 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.11 | 1.1280/1.14/1.1485 | DN | UP>1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3275 | 1.3485/1.3650 | DN | UP>1.3630 |
| USD/JPY | 114.40 | 116.30 | UP | DN<114.40 |
| USD/INR | 74.95 | 75.70 | UP | DN<74.95 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9175/0.9085 | 0.9345 | SIDE | DN<0.9085 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.98. 50 day moving average is at 74.79.200 day moving average is at 74.32. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.35. Important resistance is at 75.70 and important support is at 74.95. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Mar contract are:
PP: 75.71, S1:75.38, S2:75.17, R1:75.92, R2:76.25.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports can be hedged at 75.50 +.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1. 11.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1485. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1120.
GBP/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170. Important support is at 1.3275/1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3485/1.3650
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 114.40. Next important resistance is at 116.35. Important support is at 114.40/113.50.
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