FX MORNING UPDATE             


USDINR opened at 69.65 on Tuesday and the pair traded in the 69.52-69.91 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.81, loss of 1 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 69.82.RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.67. Rupee has declined 10% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Equity markets continued to climb higher. Aug USD/INR closed at 69.88, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.88. Aug Euro/INR closed at 80.57, GBP/INR at 89.74 and Yen/INR at 63.42.

FII’S have bought Rs 1504 Cr of Indian Equities in Aug till date . FII’S have bought Rs 4460 Cr of Indian debt securities in Aug till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3534 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 36679 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.17% on Tuesday. DOW declined 88 points (0.34%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.64% and Hang seng climbed 0.63% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1558, Pound at 1.2872,Yen at 110.86.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1197 and WT1Crude at USD 67.97.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.82% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.83%.        

Economic news: USD reversed early losses as Fed indicated readiness to hike rates if economy is on track. FOMC minutes noted that “further gradual increases” in their
target rate “would be consistent with a sustained expansion of
economic activity, strong labor market conditions and inflation
near the committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the
medium term.” Earlier in the day, USD was weaker on US President’s legal troubles. US bond yields declined further and hence dragged USD lower.                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Data Highlights : – US existing home sales dipped to 5.34 mn.

Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims, new home sales and house price index

-EU PMI(flash-mfrg) and consumer confidence.    

USD/INR   69.91 69.52
EUR/USD 1.1558 1.1623 1.1554
GBP/USD 1.2872 1.2936 1.2869
USD/JPY 110.86 110.68 110.03

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1587 1.1620 1.1656 1.1689 1.1551 1.1518 1.1482
GBP/USD 1.2903 1.2937 1.2970 1.3004 1.2870 1.2836 1.2803
USD/JPY 110.43


110.83 111.08 111.48


110.18 109.78 109.53


USD/INR 69.74 69.97 70.13   69.57 69.35  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.13/1.1120 1.1510/1.1620 DN SIDE>1.1620
GBP/USD 1.26 1.2957/1.3050 DN SIDE>1.3050
USD/JPY 110.20/109.70 113.10 UP DN<109.70
USD/INR 69.52/69.30/69.10 70.40/70.75 UP SIDE<69.10
USD/CHF 0.9850/0.9785 1.0060 UP  DN <0.9785


Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 69. 50 day moving average is at 68.63. 200 day moving average is at 65.90. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 69.60 and later at 69.30. Important resistance is at 70.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 69.82,S1:69.66, S2:69.42, R1:70.05, R2:70.22.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1510 and later at 1.1620. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3215 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.2957 and later at 1.3050. Important support is at 1.26.           

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 113. Next important support is at 110.20 and later at 109.20. Important resistance is  113.    



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