FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.12 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.06-83.18 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.15, gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.08.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.10 on 23/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 83.16 y’day, gain of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.08. Jan Euro/INR closed at 90.60, GBP/INR at 105.84 and Yen/INR at 56.11. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.86% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 618.93 bn, as on Jan 12 th. Reserves climbed by USD 1.93 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (23/01) |
|
USDINR |
83.10 |
|
EURINR |
90.60 |
|
GBPINR |
105.84 |
|
JPYINR |
56.11 |
In Jan, FPI’S have sold Rs 15154 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 14281 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 333 points (1.54%) Y’day. US S&P climbed 9 points (0.20%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.09% and Hang Seng climbed 2.63% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0857, Pound at 1.2687, Yen at 148.19.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2024 and WT1Crude at USD 74.50/Brent at USD 79.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.13% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.17%.
Economic news: BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. US GDP and Core PCE index are important events for the week. There is no clear identified theme in FX market now.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Wednesday’s calendar : – EU PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services- flash)
-UK PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services-flash)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.18 |
83.06 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0857 |
1.0917 |
1.0821 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2687 |
1.2749 |
1.2648 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
148.19 |
148.73 |
146.99 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0863 |
1.0905 |
1.0958 |
1.1000 |
1.0809 |
1.0768 |
1.0714 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2694 |
1.2740 |
1.2795 |
1.2841 |
1.2639 |
1.2593 |
1.2539 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.02 |
149.05 |
149.76 |
150.80 |
147.31 |
146.28 |
145.57 |
|
USD/INR |
83.13 |
83.20 |
83.25 |
|
83.08 |
83.01 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0875/1.0760 |
1.1010/1.1275 |
SIDE |
UP>1.1010 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2610 |
1.2810/1.30 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2610 |
|
USD/JPY |
142.85/141.70 |
146.50/147.50 |
UP |
DN<141 |
|
USD/INR |
82.80 |
83.15/83.24 |
SIDE |
UP>83.35 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8330 |
0.8650 |
DN |
UP>0.8650 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.15. 50 day moving average is at 83.23.200 day moving average is at 82.71. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.17/83.24. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 83.14, S1:83.09, S2:83.03, R1:83.21, R2:83.25.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0875/1.0740. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2610/1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2810/1.30.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 140. Important resistance is at 146.50/147.50 and support is at 140.
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