USDINR opened at 75.16 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.02-75.65 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.65, gain of One Rupee and eighteen ps for USD as against prior close of 74.57. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.62 on 23/02. Mar USD/INR closed at 76.01, gain of One rupee and 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.90. Mar Euro/INR closed at 84.90, GBP/INR at 101.77 and Yen/INR at 66.27. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.15% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (24/02) |
| USDINR | 75.25 |
| EURINR | 84.64 |
| GBPINR | 101.63 |
| JPYINR | 65.69 |
In Feb, FII’S have net sold Rs 9454 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1202 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 42075 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 5306 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 815 points (-4.78%). DOW climbed 92 points (-0.28%). Nikkei declined -1.81% and Hang Seng declined -3.2% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.12, Pound at 1.3384, Yen at 115.55.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1912 and WT1Crude at USD 95.40/Brent at USD 98.20.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.96% and 3 m libor closed at 0.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.74%.
Economic news: Rupee declined steeply, Oil, Gold rallied and Equity indices stumbled as Russia launched full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 232k and new home sales climbed to 801k.
Friday’s calendar: US durables order, pending home sales, Personal income and spending
| USD/INR | 75.02 | 75.65 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.12 | 1.1307 | 1.1107 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3384 | 1.3548 | 1.3273 | |
| USD/JPY | 115.55 | 115.69 | 114.42 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1202 | 1.1297 | 1.1402 | 1.1497 | 1.1097 | 1.1002 | 1.0898 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3398 | 1.3523 | 1.3673 | 1.3798 | 1.3248 | 1.3123 | 1.2974 |
| USD/JPY | 115.23 | 116.04 | 116.51 | 117.32 | 114.77 | 113.95 | 113.49 |
| USD/INR | 75.44 | 75.86 | 76.07 | 75.23 | 74.81 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1275/1.12 | 1.1395/1.15 | DN | UP>1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3485/1.3355/1.3170 | 1.3650/1.3750 | DN | UP>1.3630 |
| USD/JPY | 113.50 | 116.30 | UP | DN<113.50 |
| USD/INR | 75.30/74.95 | 75.70 | UP | DN<74.95 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9175/0.9085 | 0.9345 | SIDE | DN<0.9085 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.96. 50 day moving average is at 74.82.200 day moving average is at 74.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.35. Important resistance is at 75.70 and important support is at 75.30/74.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Mar contract are:
PP: 75.69, S1:75.36, S2:74.72, R1:76.33, R2:76.66.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports can be hedged at 75.50 +.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1. 1.1270/1.12.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1485. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1120.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 ,but below 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3360 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3630/1.3750.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 116.35. Next important resistance is at 116.35. Important support is at 113.50.
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