USDINR opened at 74.57 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.54-74.73 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.57, loss of 31 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.88. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.62 on 23/02Feb USD/INR closed at 74.65, loss of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.79. Feb Euro/INR closed at 84.66, GBP/INR at 101.56 and Yen/INR at 64.88. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.25% p.a.  

USDINR 74.62
EURINR 84.52
GBPINR 101.45
JPYINR 64.86

In Feb, FII’S have net sold Rs 9454 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1202 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 42075 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 5306 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 28 points (-0.17%). DOW declined 464 points (-1.38%). Nikkei declined -1.71% and Hang Seng climbed 0.60% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1286, Pound at 1.3537, Yen at 114.97.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1915 and WT1Crude at USD 93/Brent at USD 94.80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.96% and 3 m libor closed at 0.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.74%.

Economic newsECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said asset purchases need to be completed before interest rates can rise. However, “we will look at the data, the projections and then we will readjust asset purchases if needed and will see when an interest rate hike can take place.”

Euro shrugged off hawkish comments as markets remained on edge as Ukraine conflict escalated.

Data highlights: – EU CPI climbed 5.1% y/y.

Thursday’s calendar: US Weekly jobless claims and new home sales

USD/INR      74.73 74.54
EUR/USD      1.1287 1.1359 1.1300
GBP/USD      1.3537 1.3621 1.3536
USD/JPY       114.97 115.21 114.89

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1322 1.1344 1.1381 1.1402 1.1285 1.1263 1.1226
GBP/USD 1.3567 1.3598 1.3652 1.3683 1.3513 1.3482 1.3428
USD/JPY 115 115.11 115.32 115.43 114.79 114.68 114.47
USD/INR 74.61 74.68 74.80   74.49 74.42  


Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1275/1.12 1.1395/1.15 DN UP>1.15
GBP/USD 1.3485/1.3355/1.3170 1.3650/1.3750 DN UP>1.3630
USD/JPY 113.50 116.30 UP DN<113.50
USD/INR 74.50/74.35 74.95/75.05/75.28 DN UP>74.95
USD/CHF 0.9175/0.9085 0.9345 SIDE DN<0.9085

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.91. 50 day moving average is at 74.83.200 day moving average is at 74.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.70. Important resistance is at 74.95/75.05/ 75.28 and important support is at 74.50/74.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 74.65, S1:74.55, S2:74.46, R1:74.74, R2:74.84.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR exports can be hedged at 75.25 +. Imports hedging can be done at 74.50/74.40.


EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1. 1.1270/1.12.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1485. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1120.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 ,but below 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3360 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3630/1.3750.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 116.35. Next important resistance is at 116.35. Important support is at 113.50.

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