USDINR opened at 74.70 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.70-74.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.88, gain of 37 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.51. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.88 on 22/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 74.79, gain of 19 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.60. Feb Euro/INR closed at 84.92, GBP/INR at 101.48 and Yen/INR at 65.10. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.35% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (22/02) |
| USDINR | 74.88 |
| EURINR | 84.63 |
| GBPINR | 101.79 |
| JPYINR | 65.26 |
In Feb, FII’S have net sold Rs 9454 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1202 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 42075 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 5306 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 114 points (-0.67%). DOW declined 482 points (-1.42%). Nikkei declined -0.78% and Hang Seng declined -0.65% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1332, Pound at 1.3597, Yen at 115.06.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1908 and WT1Crude at USD 92.10/Brent at USD 94.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.94% and 3 m libor closed at 0.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.67%.
Economic news: Markets remained volatile. USDINR fwd premia climbed to 4.35% p.a. for 1 year as RBI did Sell-Buy swap and rolled over positions aimed at sucking liquidity out of the system, expecting big USD inflows for LIC IPO. US markets stumbled as US imposed sanctions on large Russian financial institutions that would cut off Russia from Western financing. US President said that Ukraine invasion by Russia has begun.
Data highlights: – US House price index climbed 18.6% y/y and consumer confidence climbed to 110.5.
-German Ifo business climate improved to 98.9.
Wednesday’s calendar: EU CPI
| USD/INR | 74.98 | 74.70 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1332 | 1.1367 | 1.1287 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3597 | 1.3606 | 1.3537 | |
| USD/JPY | 115.06 | 115.25 | 114.50 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1327 | 1.1367 | 1.1407 | 1.1447 | 1.1287 | 1.1247 | 1.1207 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3575 | 1.3613 | 1.3644 | 1.3682 | 1.3544 | 1.3506 | 1.3474 |
| USD/JPY | 114.94 | 115.38 | 115.69 | 116.14 | 114.63 | 114.19 | 113.88 |
| USD/INR | 74.85 | 75 | 75.13 | 74.72 | 74.57 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1275/1.12 | 1.1395/1.15 | DN | UP>1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3485/1.3355/1.3170 | 1.3650/1.3750 | DN | UP>1.3630 |
| USD/JPY | 113.50 | 116.30 | UP | DN<113.50 |
| USD/INR | 74.70/74.40 | 74.95/75.05/75.28 | DN | UP>74.90 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9175/0.9085 | 0.9345 | SIDE | DN<0.9085 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.89. 50 day moving average is at 74.89.200 day moving average is at 74.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.70. Important resistance is at 74.95/75.05/ 75.28 and important support is at 74.70/74.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 74.83, S1:74.63, S2:74.48, R1:74.98, R2:75.18.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports can be hedged at 75.60 +. Imports hedging can be done at 74.75/74.40.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1. 1.1270/1.12.. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1485. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1120.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 ,but below 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3360 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3630/1.3750.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 116.35. Next important resistance is at 116.35. Important support is at 113.50
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