FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 75.5’4 y”day and the pair traded in the 75.36-75.64 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.61, gain of 24 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.37. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.55 on 14/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 75.70, gain of 31 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.39. Feb 1Euro/INR closed at 85.57, GBP/INR at 102.25 and Yen/INR at 65.70. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.89% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (14/02) |
| USDINR | 75.55 |
| EURINR | 85.72 |
| GBPINR | 102.30 |
| JPYINR | 65.47 |
In Feb, FII’S have net sold Rs 9712 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 5837 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 42334 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 12345 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 531 points (-3.06%). DOW declined 171 points (-0.49%). Nikkei declined -2.23%% and Hang Seng declined -1.41% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1313, Pound at 1.3545, Yen at 115.33.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1872 and WT1Crude at USD 94.90/Brent at USD 95.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.97% and 3 m libor closed at 0.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.67%.
Economic news: Indian IIP grew only by 0.4% y/y in Dec due to high base effect. Mfrg declined -0.1%, Mining grew by 2.6%, Power generation climbed 2.9%. Capital Goods production declined -4.6% and Consumer durables production declined by -2.7%. CPI climbed to 7 month high of 6.01%.The rise was mainly on account of high food inflation, which jumped to a 14-month high of 5.43 per cent, along with an unfavourable base.
FOMC minutes and US retail sales are key events for the week.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US PPI
-German and EU Zew surveys
-UK unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 75.64 | 75.36 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1313 | 1.1369 | 1.1280 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3545 | 1.3572 | 1.3495 | |
| USD/JPY | 115.33 | 116.18 | 115.01 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1318 | 1.1356 | 1.1407 | 1.1445 | 1.1267 | 1.1229 | 1.1178 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3533 | 1.3571 | 1.3610 | 1.3648 | 1.3494 | 1.3456 | 1.3417 |
| USD/JPY | 115.54 | 115.87 | 116.18 | 116.60 | 115.13 | 114.70 | 114.39 |
| USD/INR | 75.53 | 75.71 | 75.81 | 75.42 | 75.25 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1275/1.12 | 1.1480 | DN | UP>1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3435/1.3355/1.3170 | 1.3630/1.3750 | DN | UP>1.3630 |
| USD/JPY | 113.50 | 116.30 | UP | DN<113.50 |
| USD/INR | 75.10 | 75.65 | UP | DN<75.05 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9085 | 0.9275/0.9375 | SIDE | DN<0.9085 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.75. 50 day moving average is at 74.92.200 day moving average is at 74.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.80. Important resistance is at 75.65 and important support is at 75.05. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 75.42, S1:75.25, S2:75.11, R1:75.56, R2:75.73.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports can be hedged at 75.60 +.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 20 and 50 day moving average,. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1. 1.1270/1.12.. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1120. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1120.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 ,but below 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3360 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3630/1.3750.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 113.50. Next important resistance is at 116.35. Important support is at 113.50.
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