USDINR opened at 74.87 Y’day and the pair traded in the 74.87-75.06 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.95, gain of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.81. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.93 on 10/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 75.05, gain of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.95. Feb Euro/INR closed at 85.84, GBP/INR at 101.80 and Yen/INR at 64.88. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.25% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (10/02)|
In Feb, FII’S have net sold Rs 1589 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 692 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 34311 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 5816 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 142 points (0.81%). DOW declined 526 points (-1,47%). Nikkei climbed 0.42% and Hang Seng climbed 0.38% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1397, Pound at 1.3550, Yen at 115.98.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1825 and WT1Crude at USD 89.70/Brent at USD 91.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.03% and 3 m libor closed at 0.27%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.81%.
Economic news: RBI maintained status quo and added that accommodative policy is warranted to aid growth. GDP is expected to grow by 7.8% in 2022-23 and inflation is expected to gradually decline to 4% next year. CPI is expected to be 5.3% in this fiscal.
Fwd premia declined , Equity indices rallied and spot Rupee weakened marginally. 10 Year yield declined to 6.71%.
US CPI rose 0.6% mom in January, above expectation of 0.4% mom. CPI core rose 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Over the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 7.0% yoy to 7.5% yoy, above expectation of 7.3% yoy. That’s the highest level since February 1982.
US Equities tumbled as Fed member called for aggressive rate hike and even said that there should be rate hikes in between scheduled meetings. The member said that Fed should hike rate by 100 bps by July.
EU downgraded 2022 Eurozone GDP growth forecasts from 4.3% to 4.0%.
Data highlights: – US CPI climbed 0.6% m/m and weekly jobless claims dipped to 223k.
Friday’s calendar: – UK industrial and manufacturing production.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.60. 50 day moving average is at 74.90.200 day moving average is at 74.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.80. Important resistance is at 75.05/75.35 and important support is at 74.72/74.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 75.05, S1:74.93, S2:74.82, R1:75.16, R2:75.28.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports can be hedged at 75.05 +.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 20 and 50 day moving average,. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1. 1.1365/1.1285.. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1120. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1120.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 ,but below 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3670 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3670/1.3750.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 113.50. Next important resistance is at 116.35. Important support is at 113.50
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