USDINR opened at 74.42 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.42-74.69 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.56, loss of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.43. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.57 on 24/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 74.62, gain of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.45. Jan Euro/INR closed at 84.46, GBP/INR at 100.72 and Yen/INR at 65.62. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.75% p.a.  

In Jan, FII’S have net sold Rs 8054 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 2696 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 13270 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 5589 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 503 points (-2.86%). DOW climbed 99 points (0.29%). Nikkei climbed 0.24% and Hang seng declined 1.24% .

Euro closed at 1.1322, Pound at 1.3482, Yen at 113.92.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1842 and WT1Crude at USD 83.70/Brent at USD 85.90.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.77% and 3 m libor closed at 0.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.63%.

Economic news: Fed policy is the focus event for the week. No policy change is expected from Fed yet, and there will not be new economic projections. The main focus is on whether, or how, Fed would make use of the statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to lay down the ground work for rate hike in March.

Indian Equity indices cracked further, tracking Global cues and apprehensions over change in Capital gains tax computation. US markets made a stunning turnaround y’day after entering into correction mode (-10% from peak).

Data highlights: – EU PMI(mfrg-flash) climbed to 59 and PMI(services- flash) dipped to 51.2.

-UK PMI(mfrg) declined to 56.9 and PMI(services) declined to 53.3.

Tuesday’s calendar: – US S&P House price index

-German Ifo survey.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.34. 50 day moving average is at 74.84.200 day moving average is at 74.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.80. Important resistance is at 74.72/74.95 and important support is at 74.30/74.10. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 74.57, S1:74.42, S2:74.22, R1:74.77, R2:74.92.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports can be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1485. Next major support is at 1.1280 and later at 1.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1485. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 ,but below 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3750. Important support is at 1.34. Important resistance is at 1.3750/1.3850.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages., but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 116.35. Next important resistance is at 115.10/116.35. Important support is at 112.50

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