USDINR opened at 74.66 Y’day and the pair traded in the 74.41-74.71 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.43, loss of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.58. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.59 on 19/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 74.50, loss of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.67. Jan Euro/INR closed at 84.55, GBP/INR at 101.57 and Yen/INR at 65.09. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.75% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 633 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (19/01) |
| USDINR | 74.59 |
| EURINR | 84.53 |
| GBPINR | 101.51 |
| JPYINR | 65.28 |
In Jan, FII’S have net bought Rs 2593 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 255 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 245 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 3148 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 174 points (-0.96%). DOW declined 339 points (-0.96%). Nikkei declined 2.80% and Hang seng climbed 0.06% .
Euro closed at 1.1359, Pound at 1.3632, Yen at 114.05.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1842 and WT1Crude at USD 84.80/Brent at USD 87.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.83% and 3 m libor closed at 0.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.60%.
Economic news: Oil price surge, rising yields continue to dominate market developments. Rupee regained from intra day low of 74.71. Recovery in Rupee could be fragile in the face of rising US Yields and crude price rally. Focus will shift to US Fed meeting next week.
Data highlights: – US Building permits climbed to 1.87 mn and housing starts climbed to 1.7 mn.
-UK CPI climbed 5.4% y/y, RPI climbed 7.5% y/y and PPI(output) declined -0.3% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and Phily Fed mfrg index.
-EU CPI
| USD/INR | 74.71 | 74.41 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1359 | 1.1357 | 1.1319 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3632 | 1.3649 | 1.3589 | |
| USD/JPY | 114.05 | 114.79 | 114.21 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1340 | 1.1361 | 1.1378 | 1.1399 | 1.1323 | 1.1302 | 1.1285 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3616 | 1.3643 | 1.3677 | 1.3704 | 1.3583 | 1.3555 | 1.3522 |
| USD/JPY | 114.45 | 114.69 | 115.03 | 115.28 | 114.11 | 113.87 | 113.53 |
| USD/INR | 74.51 | 74.62 | 74.82 | 74.31 | 74.20 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1365/1.1280/1.12 | 1.15 | DN | UP>1.17 |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | 1.3750/1.3850 | SIDE | UP>1.3850 |
| USD/JPY | 112.50 | 115.50/116.30 | UP | DN<112.50 |
| USD/INR | 73.80 | 74.35/74.60 | DN | UP>74.35 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9085 | 0.9275/0.9375 | SIDE | DN<0.9085 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.41. 50 day moving average is at 74.84.200 day moving average is at 74.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.80. Important resistance is at 74.72/74.95 and important support is at 74.30/74.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 74.58, S1:74.36, S2:74.23, R1:74.71, R2:74.93.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports can be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 20 and 50 day averages. Major resistance is at 1.1525. Next major support is at 1.1365 and later at 1.1280/1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 ,but below 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.34. Important resistance is at 1.3750/1.3850.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages., but below 20 day moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 116.35. Next important resistance is at 116.35. Important support is at 112.50
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