USDINR opened at 74.34 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.26-74.47 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.26, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.34. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.31 on 03/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 74.53, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.57..Jan Euro/INR closed at 84.74, GBP/INR at 100.77 and Yen/INR at 64.85. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.60% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 635.10 bn.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (03/01)|
In Dec, FII’S have net sold Rs 9515 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 10937 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 2838 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 2893 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 271 points (1.57%). DOW climbed 246 points (0.68%). Nikkei declined 0.40% and Hang seng declined 0.53% .
Euro closed at 1.1307, Pound at 1.3481, Yen at 115.40.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1804 and WT1Crude at USD 75635/Brent at USD 79.35.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.62% and 3 m libor closed at 0.22%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.45%.
Economic news: Indian Q2 Current account deficit expanded to 1.3% of GDP to USD 9.6 bn, due to outpacing of imports, which grew by 65% y/y. Exports climbed 38.71%. Q2 Trade deficit stood at USD 44.4 bn. Invisible receipts rose to USD 34.8 bn. CAD was at a surplus of 0.9% of GDP in Q1. Q2 FDI flows was around USD 9.5 bn, FPI flows tapered to USD 3.9 bn. Overall capital receipts stood at USD 40.1 bn, the balance being contributed by loans. BOP surplus stood at USD 31.2 bn in Q2.
Data highlights: – EU PMI(mfrg) was finalized at 58.
-US Construction spending climbed 0.4% m/m.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US ISM( mfrg)
-German retail sales
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 75.06. 50 day moving average is at 74.95.200 day moving average is at 74.10. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.32. Important resistance is at 74.48/74.60 and important support is at 74.10 and later at 73.85. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP: 74.64, S1:74.33, S2:74.15, R1:74.83, R2:75.13.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports can be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1385/1.1535. Next major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3610.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day, but below 50 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 112.50. Next important resistance is at 115.40. Important support is at 112.50.
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