USDINR opened at 74.91 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.61.-74.95 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.66, loss of 33 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.99. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.85 on 28/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 74.74, loss of 27 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.01. Dec Euro/INR closed at 84.70, GBP/INR at 100.53 and Yen/INR at 65.10. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.60% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 635.83 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (28/12) |
| USDINR | 74.85 |
| EURINR | 84.78 |
| GBPINR | 100.55 |
| JPYINR | 65.16 |
In Dec, FII’S have net sold Rs 8315 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 6495 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 1638 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 13830 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 147 points (0.86%). DOW climbed 95 points (0.26%). Nikkei climbed 1.37% and Hang seng climbed 0.24% .
Euro is now at 1.1305, Pound at 1.3432, Yen at 114.81.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1805 and WT1Crude at USD 76.10/Brent at USD 78.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.47% and 3 m libor closed at 0.17%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.49%.
Economic news: Rupee continued to gain and has now significantly retraced its loss from 73.83. Thin trades and RBI’S approval of Rupee gain may have contributed to this leg of appreciation.
Data highlights: – US house price index climbed 18.4% y/y.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US pending home sales
| USD/INR | 74.95 | 74,61 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1305 | 1.1334 | 1.1289 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3432 | ` | 1.3462 | 1.3416 |
| USD/JPY | 114.81 | 114.94 | 114.71 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1312 | 1.1335 | 1.1356 | 1.1379 | 1.1290 | 1.1268 | 1.1246 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3437 | 1.3458 | 1.3483 | 1.3504 | 1.3412 | 1.3391 | 1.3367 |
| USD/JPY | 114.81 | 114.91 | 115.05 | 115.15 | 114.68 | 114.57 | 114.44 |
| USD/INR | 74.74 | 74.87 | 75.07 | 74.53 | 74.41 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.12 | 1.1385/1.1510 | DN | UP>1.17 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3170 | 1.3470 | DN | UP>1.3850 |
| USD/JPY | 112.50 | 114.70/115.40 | SIDE | DN<112.50 |
| USD/INR | 74.80 | 75.40/75.70 | SIDE | UP>75.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9150 | 0.9375 | SIDE | DN<0.9150 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 75.58. 50 day moving average is at 75.01.200 day moving average is at 74.10. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.32. Important resistance is at 74.80/75.40 and important support is at 74.40 and later at 73.85. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 74.80, S1:74.59, S2:74.44, R1:74.95, R2:75.16
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports can be done at 74.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1385/1.1535. Next major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3470/1.3610.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day, but below 50 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 112.50. Next important resistance is at 115. Important support is at 112.50
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