USDINR opened at 75.16 on Friday and the pair traded in the 75.-75.20 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.01, loss of 23 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.24. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.14 on 24/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 75.08, loss of 20 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.28. Dec Euro/INR closed at 85.11, GBP/INR at 100.70 and Yen/INR at 65.66. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.58% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 635.83 bn.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (24/12)|
In Dec, FII’S have net sold Rs 8315 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 6495 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 1638 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 13830 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 68 points (-0.40%). US markets were closed on Friday. Nikkei was closed and Hang seng climbed 0.13% on Friday
Euro closed the week at 1.1320, Pound at 1.3386, Yen at 114.39.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1810 and WT1Crude at USD 73.70/Brent at USD 76.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.46% and 3 m libor closed at 0.17%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.47%.
Economic news: Omicron fear, Supply chain issues, high inflation, possibility of steeper rate hikes in 2022 are likely to dominate early 2022 developments. US data is resilient, suggesting that consumers may be getting desensitized to new waves of variant. Holiday plans may be rattled by Omicron and risks to economy and higher inflation returns. As new Year is set to dawn, same risks of 2021 prevails. Indian economy is poised to grow at 9.5% in this fiscal and inflation may cool off due to higher baseline figures. RBI is behind the inflation curve and may have to pull out liquidity in 2022 and raise rates.
Data highlights: – US bank holiday, no major data release.
Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 75.51. 50 day moving average is at 75.06.200 day moving average is at 74.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.83. Important resistance is at 75.40/75.70 and important support is at 74.80 and later at 74.50. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 75.07, S1:74.94, S2:74.87, R1:75.14, R2:75.27
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports can be done at 74.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1385/1.1535. Next major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3470/1.3610.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day, but below 50 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 112.50. Next important resistance is at 115. Important support is at 112.50
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