USDINR opened at 76.14 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.83-76.16 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.91, loss of 17 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.08. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.98 on 20/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 75.94, loss of 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.10. Dec Euro/INR closed at 85.59, GBP/INR at 100.22 and Yen/INR at 66.87. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.55% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 635.83 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (20/12) |
| USDINR | 75.98 |
| EURINR | 85.51 |
| GBPINR | 100.47 |
| JPYINR | 66.97 |
In Dec, FII’S have net sold Rs 7745 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 3898 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 1069 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 16427 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 371 points (2.18%). DOW declined 433 points (-1.23%). Nikkei declined 2.13% and Hang seng declined 1.93% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1276, Pound at 1.3202, Yen at 113.59.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1791 and WT1Crude at USD 69/Brent at USD 71.80.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.41% and 3 m libor closed at 0.17%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.45%.
Economic news: This is a holiday shortened week. Focus is on US durables data, Core PCE index and personal spending data. Asian and Indian Equity markets cracked on fears of Omicron variant.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Tuesday’s calendar: – EU Consumer confidence
| USD/INR | 76.16 | 75.83 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1276 | 1.1304 | 1.1236 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3202 | ` | 1.3246 | 1.3174 |
| USD/JPY | 113.59 | 113.74 | 113.33 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1273 | 1.1310 | 1.1340 | 1.1377 | 1.1242 | 1.1206 | 1.1175 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3210 | 1.3246 | 1.3282 | 1.3318 | 1.3174 | 1.3138 | 1.3102 |
| USD/JPY | 113.58 | 113.83 | 113.98 | 114.23 | 113.42 | 113.18 | 113.02 |
| USD/INR | 75.96 | 76.10 | 76.29 | 75.76 | 75.62 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.12 | 1.1385/1.1510 | DN | UP>1.17 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3170 | 1.3470 | DN | UP>1.3850 |
| USD/JPY | 112.50 | 114.70/115.40 | SIDE | DN<112.50 |
| USD/INR | 75.70 | 76.35 | UP | SIDE<75.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9150 | 0.9375 | SIDE | DN<0.9150 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 75.35. 50 day moving average is at 74.99.200 day moving average is at 73.86. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.83. Important resistance is at 76.36/76.90 and important support is at 75.70 and later at 75.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 76.03, S1:75.81, S2:75.68, R1:76.16, R2:76.38
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports hedging can be done.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1385/1.1535. Next major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3170 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3170. Important resistance is at 1.3470/1.3610.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day, but below 50 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 112.50. Next important resistance is at 115. Important support is at 112.50.
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