USDINR opened at 75.20 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.18-75.48 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.42, gain of 26 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.16. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.30 on 06/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 75.57, gain of 29 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.28. Dec Euro/INR closed at 85.42, GBP/INR at 100.31 and Yen/INR at 66.73. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.70% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (06/12)|
In Dec, FII’S have net sold Rs 3078 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 124 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 3598 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 20201 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 284 points (1.65%). DOW climbed 646 points (1.87%). Nikkei declined 0.36% and Hang seng declined 1.76% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1279, Pound at 1.3264, Yen at 113.46.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1784 and WT1Crude at USD 69.90/Brent at USD 73.40.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.44% and 3 m libor closed at 0.17%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.35%.
Economic news: Rupee declined to 75.48. USDINR pair has met stiff resistances at 75.50+ levels earlier also.
The Confederation of British Industry downgraded UK GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 8.2% to 6.9%. For 2022, GDP growth forecast was also lowered from 6.1% to 5.1%. Inflation is projected to peak at 5.2% in the coming April while unemployment rate would fall to 3.8% by the end of 2023.
Data highlights: – EU Sentix investor confidence dipped to 13.6.
Tuesday’s calendar: – EU and German Zew surveys and German industrial production,
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.60. 50 day moving average is at 74.59.200 day moving average is at 73.86. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.83. Important resistance is at 75.68 and important support is at 75.16 and later at 74.85. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 75.50, S1:75.38, S2:75.19, R1:75.69, R2:75.81
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR exports hedging can be done closer to 75.50 .
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure closer to 85.50.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1535. Next major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1185. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3830 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3278. Important resistance is at 1.3515/1.3610.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day, but below 50 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 115. Next important resistance is at 115. Important support is at 112.50
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