USDINR opened at 74.96 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.80-75.02 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.92, loss of 24 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.16. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.91 on 01/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 75.14, loss of 23 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.37. Dec Euro/INR closed at 85.20, GBP/INR at 100.13 and Yen/INR at 66.30. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.78% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (01/12) |
| USDINR | 74.91 |
| EURINR | 84.91 |
| GBPINR | 99.85 |
| JPYINR | 65.96 |
In NOV, FII’S have net bought Rs 15102 cr in Cash Equity segment and have net bought Rs 2389 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 6676 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 20077 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 183 points (1.08%). DOW declined 461 points (1.34%). Asian markets are trading mixed today.
Euro is now at 1.1328, Pound at 1.3293, Yen at 113.05.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1781 and WT1Crude at USD 66/Brent at USD 69.60.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.42% and 3 m libor closed at 0.17%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.35%.
Economic news: Indian Q2 GDP climbed 8.4% y/y. Q1 growth was 20.1%. The gross value added (GVA) in Q2 has grown by 8.5 percent, as compared to a decline of 7.3 percent in the same quarter last year. In Q1 of FY22, the GVA had sharply surged by 18.8 percent.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) in the July-September quarter rose by 8.61 percent on year in Q2, but down from a rise of 19.35 percent on year in Q1. Agri sector grew by 4.5%, mfrg climbed 5.5%.Mining grew by 15.4% and construction grew by 7.5%.Services sector grew by 10.2%.
Indian Exports climbed 26.5% to USD 29.88 bio and imports rose 57% to USD 53.15 bio. Trade deficit climbed to USD 23.27 bio. India’s merchandise exports in April-November 2021 was $262.46 billion, an increase of 50.71 per cent over $174.15 billion in April-November 2020 and an increase of 24.29 per cent over $211.17 billion in April-November 2019,” the commerce ministry said.
GST collected in November 2021 stood at Rs 1,31,526 crore. GST Collection crossed 1.3 lac cr for the second straight month in Nov.This is the second highest since GST launch.
Concerns about the risks posed by the new omicron COVID-19 variant continue to mount, and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his stance of wrapping up asset tapering earlier than planned.
Data highlights: – US private sector added 534 k jobs, better than expected. ISM (mfrg) dipped to 61.1.
US House price index climbed 19.1% y/y, construction spending climbed 0.2% m/m.
-EU CPI climbed to 4.9% y/y, German retail sales declined -0.3% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims
-EU PPI and unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 75.17 | 74.81 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1328 | 1.1359 | 1.1303 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3293 | ` | 1.3352 | 1.3262 |
| USD/JPY | 113.05 | 113.63 | 112.66 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1327 | 1.1351 | 1.1383 | 1.1407 | 1.1295 | 1.1271 | 1.1238 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3297 | 1.3332 | 1.3386 | 1.3421 | 1.3242 | 1.3208 | 1.3153 |
| USD/JPY | 113.06 | 113.46 | 114.03 | 114.43 | 112.49 | 112.09 | 111.52 |
| USD/INR | 74.91 | 75.02 | 75.13 | 74.80 | 74.69 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.12 | 1.1415/1.1540 | DN | UP>1.17 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3280 | 1.3515/1.3610 | DN | UP>1.3850 |
| USD/JPY | 112.70 | 114.70/115.40 | SIDE | DN<112.70 |
| USD/INR | 74.60 | 75.16/75.68 | UP | SIDE<74.60 |
| USD/CHF | 0.91 | 0.9370 | UP | DN<0.91 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.48. 50 day moving average is at 74.47.200 day moving average is at 73.81. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.83. Important resistance is at 75.16 and later at 75.68 and important support is at 73.85. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 75.04, S1:74.87, S2:74.63, R1:75.29, R2:75.45
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done .
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 85.50.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1535. Next major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3278 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3278. Important resistance is at 1.3515/1.3610.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 115. Next important resistance is at 115. Important support is at 112.70.
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