USDINR opened at 74.60 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.57-74.92 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.85, gain of 48 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.37. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.71 on 26/11. Dec USD/INR closed at 75.13, gain of 38 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.75. Nov Euro/INR closed at 84.86, GBP/INR at 100.22 and Yen/INR at 65.98. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.78% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (26/11)|
In NOV, FII’S have net bought Rs 15102 cr in Cash Equity segment and have net bought Rs 2389 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 6676 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 20077 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 510 points (-2.91%). DOW declined 905 points (-2.53%). Nikkei was down 2.53% and Hang seng declined 2.67% .
Euro closed the week at 1.1319, Pound at 1.3339, Yen at 113.31.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1791 and WT1Crude at USD 68/Brent at USD 73.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.48% and 3 m libor closed at 0.17%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.33%.
Economic news: Rupee declined 48 ps as new variant of covid melted Equity markets and negatively impacted USD against majors. Crude crashed on fears of yet another economic slow down as Europe grappled with Covid surge. US 10 Year bond yield declined steeply by 12 bps, as market weighed the possibility of Fed taking a back step on QE taper in order to assess the impact of new variant of covid.
Data highlights: – No major data
Monday’s calendar: – US pending home sales
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.51. 50 day moving average is at 74.44.200 day moving average is at 73.81. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.83. Important resistance is at 75.16 and later at 75.68 and important support is at 73.85. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 75.04, S1:74.87, S2:74.63, R1:75.29, R2:75.45
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done .
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 85.50.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1535. Next major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3278 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3278. Important resistance is at 1.3515/1.3610.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 115. Next important resistance is at 115. Important support is at 112.70.
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